Pips for Breakfast: January 6, 2026

Good morning. Your coffee is hot, the spreads are tight, and the market is currently wondering if the potential acquisition of Greenland comes with a loyalty program. Here is what is on the menu.

On This Day

History shows that January 6 is usually the day the "January Effect" actually kicks in as the last of the holiday eggnog finally leaves the system. In 1999, the Euro was just a week old and already acting like a moody teenager, swinging wildly as traders tried to figure out if this "single currency" thing was actually going to stick. In 2021, political volatility in the US reminded everyone that "safe haven" is a very relative term when the news cycle breaks.

The Play

EUR/USD: Watch the German CPI print at 02:29 UTC. If the number beats the 0.3% forecast, it might give the Euro enough of a caffeine kick to stop its New Year slide. We are looking for a break above 1.0920 to confirm that the "January Effect" is working in favor of the bulls today.

AUD/USD: The late session is all about the Aussie inflation data. The market expects a slight cooldown to 3.6% yearly. If it prints higher, the "higher for longer" narrative for the RBA gets a second wind. We're looking at a potential 40 pip range expansion on the release, so keep your stops wide or your hands off the keyboard until the dust settles.

What's on Deck

EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m drops at 02:29 UTC. Forecast is 0.3%. A miss here makes the ECB look like they're winning, which ironically usually makes the Euro lose.

USD: President Trump speaks at 14:00 UTC. Given the headlines about Greenland, any mention of "diplomatic acquisitions" or "real estate opportunities" will likely send the USD/DKK into a frenzy.

AUD: A massive data dump at 19:30 UTC including Monthly CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI. This is the main course for the day. If the trimmed mean stays sticky, the Aussie could be the strongest currency on the board by tomorrow morning.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

XAG/USD: Silver surged 6% and is currently the overachiever of the commodities class. Watch for a retracement toward the $28.50 level if the USD finds its footing during the NY session.

USD/DKK: With the US official stating the Greenland acquisition is "not going away," the Danish Krone is officially the most interesting boring currency in the world. Expect volatility if the "diplomatic" tone shifts.

EUR/GBP: Keep an eye on the headlines regarding Ukraine. With peace looking "increasingly possible," the Euro might catch a bid as the geopolitical risk premium finally starts to melt away.

Why Your P&L Cares

Early January is when funds stop pretending they aren't repositioning. The "January Effect" isn't just a catchy phrase for analysts, it's the sound of billions of dollars moving from what worked in 2025 to what might work in 2026. Liquidity is returning, but it's still thin enough that a single speech about Arctic real estate can move the needle 50 pips in seconds.

In previous years, this week has been a graveyard for traders who over-leveraged before the first real trend of the year established itself. The German CPI and the Aussie inflation data today are the first real "hard data" tests of the new year. If the numbers don't match the narrative, the market will reprice reality with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer.

The Bottom Line

Don't get distracted by the silver rally while the Aussie CPI walks out the door with your profit. The calendar is top heavy with inflation data, so use the midday lull during the Trump speech to double check your risk parameters. Now go make some pips. You're fed.