Pips for Breakfast: January 20, 2026

Donald Trump wants to buy Greenland again, which is the kind of geopolitical side quest that makes currency analysts consider a career in pottery.

On This Day

In previous years, mid-January was usually when the January Effect finished its warm-up and started breaking things. Historically, this week is when institutional funds finish their rebalancing and the market decides which trends it actually wants to keep. EUR/USD has a habit of getting particularly twitchy during this window as the holiday hangover finally wears off.

The Play

GBP/USD is today's main character. We have a triple threat of labor data, earnings figures, and a speech from BOE Governor Bailey. If the Average Earnings Index stays sticky above the 4.6% forecast, it'll be hard for the BOE to talk about aggressive cuts. We're looking at a potential long on cable if the data beats, especially since the market is currently leaning defensive. Just don't get married to the position before Bailey speaks, as he has a history of walking back hawkish data with a single well-placed adjective.

What's on Deck

02:00 UTC GBP: Claimant Count Change. The forecast is 15.6K. If this number spikes, the "recession is coming" crowd will start tweeting in all caps.
02:00 UTC GBP: Average Earnings Index. The market wants 4.6%. Anything higher makes the BOE's job harder and the pound's life easier.
04:15 UTC All: WEF Annual Meetings. A lot of very important people saying very vague things in Switzerland. It's usually a non-event for pips until someone says something accidentally honest.
04:45 UTC GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks. The high-impact wild card.
11:30 UTC CHF: SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks. The SNB likes to keep the franc from getting too strong, often by just hinting that they might do something scary.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

NZD/USD: The Kiwi is catching a tailwind from improved local data. It's the overachiever of the Asia-Pacific session so far.
USD/CNH: China is trying to curb price wars and "involution" while weighing a national M&A fund. It's a lot of moving parts for a currency that usually prefers to sit still.
AUD/USD: The "defensive mood" in early European trade is capping the Aussie's upside despite the soybean headlines.

Why Your P&L Cares

The risk-off sentiment we're seeing this morning is a direct response to the "defensive mood" mentioned in the headlines. When the US President starts talking about acquiring massive ice-covered territories, and China starts talking about national M&A funds to stop "involution," traders get nervous.

Historically, the January Effect means that if the market starts the year with a specific bias, it often gets tested right about now. The defensive posture in the European morning suggests that the early-year optimism might be hitting a wall. If you're trading EUR/USD, watch the 1.0900 level. It's been a psychological pivot point in previous years when funds are rebalancing.

The Bottom Line

Today is about navigating the British data minefield and ignoring the Greenland noise. Focus on the earnings print and keep an eye on Schlegel if you're playing with the franc. Now go find some profit. You're fueled.