Pips for Breakfast: February 3, 2026

The RBA decided to hike rates while the Australian construction industry is busy doing its best impression of a lead balloon.

On This Day

In 2022, the European Central Bank finally admitted that inflation wasn't just a houseguest who overstayed their welcome. Christine Lagarde stopped saying rate hikes were "highly unlikely," and the Euro rallied harder than a tech bro talking about his new startup. It was the day the "transitory" narrative officially went to live on a farm upstate.

The Play

Watch the Kiwi: The NZD/USD is sitting in a precarious spot ahead of today's employment data. If the unemployment rate sticks at 5.3% or edges lower, the Kiwi could catch a ride on the RBA's hawkish coattails.

The USD/INR fade: The US just dropped tariffs on India to 18% in exchange for India ditching Russian oil. This is essentially a geopolitical coupon for good behavior. Expect some volatility in the Rupee as the market prices in this new trade bromance. If the USD stays soft after JOLTS, look for a move toward the recent lows.

What's on Deck

JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 UTC): The market expects 7.21M openings. If we see a big miss, the "soft landing" crowd will start sweating, and the Dollar might lose its footing.

NZD Employment Change (16:45 UTC): New Zealand is looking for a 0.3% gain. Anything flat or negative will make the RBNZ look very smart for being cautious, which is usually bad news for the NZD bulls.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: The pair is trying to ignore the -14.9% drop in building permits. Apparently, higher rates are great for the currency even if nobody can afford to build a house to put it in.

China Watch: The NPC Standing Committee meets tomorrow. Traders are front-running potential stimulus news. If you see Copper moving, the AUD won't be far behind.

USD/JPY: It's currently playing a game of chicken with the 150.00 level. Nobody wants to be the first one to blink before the JOLTS data hits the tape.

Why Your P&L Cares

February is traditionally the month where January's trends decide if they have staying power or if they were just a New Year's resolution that failed by week three. Back in 2015, the RBA cut rates on this exact day and caught everyone looking the wrong way. The AUD/USD dropped 2% in a heartbeat.

Today's JOLTS data is the first real look at the US labor market for the month. Since the US just signed a massive trade pivot with India, the usual correlations are a bit messy. When the "world's policeman" starts using tariffs as a carrot instead of a stick, the FX market usually needs a minute to check the manual.

The Bottom Line

Today is about labor and loyalty. Watch if the US jobs market is cooling and if the Kiwi can survive its own employment report. Now go manage your risk. You're fed.