Pips for Breakfast: February 8, 2026

Japan is holding an election today, which means the yen is about to become the most volatile thing in your portfolio by the time markets open this evening.

On This Day

In 2021, Tesla announced it had bought 1.5 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. This prompted a massive rally and thousands of laser-eye profile pictures on Twitter. In 1993, the Czech and Slovak korunas officially split. It was a clean break, unlike most things in FX.

The Play

The Yen Gap: With Lower House elections wrapping up, the Asian session tonight is going to be a wild ride. If the ruling party holds its ground, expect USD/JPY to trade with a heavy bias as stability returns. If the results are a mess, the yen might actually find safe-haven bids. Set your alerts for 151.50.

The Gold Standard: China has been buying gold for 15 months straight. They aren't doing it for the aesthetic. With US-Iran talks officially "over for now," the geopolitical floor for XAU/USD is getting higher. Any dip toward 2,050 this week is an invitation, not a warning.

What's on Deck

JPY Lower House Elections: Results will start trickling in just as the first candles of the week print. This is high impact. If the exit polls look ugly, the Nikkei and the Yen will have a very loud conversation.

GBP BOE Governor Bailey: He speaks shortly after the open. Bailey has a knack for saying something that makes the Pound look like it’s on a rollercoaster. Watch GBP/USD for the "Bailey Dip" if he mentions economic headwinds.

The Week Ahead: We are entering the second week of February. Seasonally, this is when January's trends start to look tired. If the Dollar has been steamrolling everything, watch for signs of exhaustion by Wednesday.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

Bitcoin: Jensen Huang is talking about a once-in-a-generation infrastructure build out. Crypto traders interpreted this as a reason to buy everything that isn't nailed down. BTC/USD is looking at that 100k level with predatory intent.

USD/CAD: Oil prices are twitchy because of the US-Iran stalemate. The Loonie usually follows the crude. If the talks stay dead, the CAD might find some unexpected strength.

Consumer Sentiment: The UMich beat suggests Americans are still spending money they may or may not have. This keeps the Fed in a "higher for longer" mood, which is the only mood they've had for a while.

Why Your P&L Cares

February is the month of the "Mid-Month Reversal." Historically, markets spend the first two weeks of the year's second month pretending that January's momentum will last forever. Then, around the 15th, reality sets in.

Back in 2021, the Tesla news felt like a permanent shift in how corporations handled cash. It wasn't. It was just a very expensive moment in time. Jensen Huang’s "infrastructure build out" comments feel similar. It’s a great narrative, but in FX, we trade the price, not the story. If the technicals start to diverge from the "AI is everything" hype this week, don't be the last one holding the bag.

The Bottom Line

The markets open in a few hours and Japan is currently at the ballot box. It’s the kind of Sunday that makes Monday morning very interesting for your margin account. Now go prepare your charts. You're fed.