Pips for Breakfast: March 13, 2026

It’s Friday the 13th, and the US Department of Commerce is celebrating by dumping every high-impact report they own into the market at exactly 8:30 AM.

On This Day

In 2020, this was the day the music stopped. The Dow Jones plummeted 10% in its worst drop since 1987 as the world realized a global lockdown wasn't just a plot for a bad movie. Currency traders spent the day watching the dollar become the only lifeboat in a very salty ocean.

The Play

The USDCAD Double Whammy: Today is a collision of two massive data sets. Canada drops its jobs numbers at the same moment the US releases Core PCE and Prelim GDP. This is a recipe for a 50-pip candle in under three seconds. If the US data shows sticky inflation while Canadian unemployment ticks up, expect USDCAD to hunt for the 1.4000 handle before the London crowd leaves for the pub.

The GBP Drift: British GDP grew 0.2% according to the latest print. It’s not exactly a rocket ship, but it’s enough to keep the Pound from falling off a cliff. Look for Cable to consolidate between 1.2750 and 1.2820 as traders square their books for the weekend.

What's on Deck

GBP GDP (03:00 UTC): Already out. The 0.2% growth was better than a contraction, which is the high bar for the UK these days.

CAD Employment (08:30 UTC): Forecast is 10.3K. Anything negative will likely invite a Loonie sell-off faster than you can say "maple syrup."

USD Core PCE & GDP (08:30 UTC): This is the Fed's favorite inflation metric. If it comes in hotter than 0.4%, the "higher for longer" narrative gets a fresh coat of paint.

USD JOLTS & Consumer Sentiment (10:00 UTC): A secondary wave of data to catch anyone who survived the 08:30 volatility.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USDJPY: Keep an eye on the 150.00 level. Japan is making "utmost efforts" to secure oil, and with the fiscal year-end approaching on March 31, Japanese firms are starting to move money back home. This repatriation usually gives the Yen a sneaky late-month bid.

AUDUSD: The news of a critical minerals trade deal between the US, EU, and Japan provides a long-term floor for the Aussie. However, with the dollar acting like a bully today, AUD may struggle to hold 0.6600.

Oil (WTI): Russia getting sanctions relief from the Trump administration is a supply-side shock. If crude continues to dip, the CAD will lose its best friend.

Why Your P&L Cares

This week has been a grind. We saw the dollar regain its swagger after a mid-week slump, and we watched the Euro try and fail to break 1.1000 for the fourth time this month. The reason things feel a bit twitchy today isn't just because it's Friday the 13th.

We’re entering the "window of weirdness" known as quarter-end rebalancing. Big funds have to make their portfolios look like they knew what they were doing all along. Combined with the Japanese fiscal year-end, liquidity might get thin and prices might get erratic. It’s the time of year where "efficient market hypothesis" goes to die.

The Bottom Line

It’s the final stretch of the week. Most of the big moves for the week are already baked in, but the 8:30 AM data dump is the final boss battle. Once the clock hits 5pm EST, the liquidity will vanish and the spreads will widen like a yawn.

Next week, we turn our attention to the RBA meeting and a fresh batch of Eurozone inflation data. If today's PCE data comes in hot, next week will be all about the "King Dollar" comeback tour.

Don't be the person who loses a week's worth of gains in the final two hours of Friday trading. Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.