Pips for Breakfast: March 22, 2026

The Pentagon spent the weekend drawing up plans for ground troops in Iran, which is a very complicated way to influence the price of Crude Oil.

On This Day

Back in 2019, the US Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis. Analysts spent the day explaining why this was a definitive sign of an imminent recession, while the S&P 500 responded by climbing another 20% over the next year.

The Play

The Yen Repatriation: USD/JPY is the main character as the Asian session opens tonight. We're approaching the March 31 fiscal year-end for Japan. Traditionally, Japanese firms pull their money home, creating a natural bid for the Yen. Look for USD/JPY to struggle at overhead resistance near 151.80. A failure there tonight could open a move back toward 149.50 as the "homecoming" flows start in earnest.

The Hormuz Hedge: If you think Iran actually shuts the Strait of Hormuz for six months, you aren't trading currencies, you're trading survival. But for the rest of us, look at CAD/JPY. Canada exports oil. Japan imports it. If headlines about the Strait get darker tonight, this pair should see significant upward pressure.

What's on Deck

Markets open tonight at 5pm EST with a heavy side of geopolitical anxiety. There's no major data on the Sunday night docket, so price action will be dictated by how the market digests the "ground troops" headlines. Expect gappy openings in the JPY crosses and Crude Oil. The real volume arrives when Tokyo wakes up to realize their energy supply line is currently a geopolitical chess piece.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: Quarter-end rebalancing is starting. This usually means messy, non-directional volatility as fund managers fix their spreadsheets.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is sensitive to global tensions. If the US-Iran situation escalates tonight, the "risk-off" trade will likely see AUD/USD testing the 0.6500 handle.
Crude Oil (WTI): Keep an eye on the gap. A jump above $85.00 on the open would signal the market is taking the Hormuz threats seriously.

Why Your P&L Cares

We're entering the final stretch of Q1, and the calendar is doing its usual late-March dance. Institutional fund managers are currently looking at their portfolios and realizing they need to sell what won and buy what lost to keep their mandated ratios. This is called rebalancing, but for retail traders, it often just feels like the market is having a mid-life crisis.

Combine that with Japan's fiscal year-end, and you get a cocktail of flows that ignore technical indicators. In previous years, these "invisible hands" have caused sudden 100-pip moves in the middle of quiet sessions. Don't assume a move is "wrong" just because there's no news. Sometimes it's just a guy in Tokyo named Hiroshi making sure the books balance before April 1.

The Bottom Line

The market opens tonight with one eye on the Persian Gulf and the other on the Japanese accounting calendar. It's a weird mix of war games and balance sheets. Now go make some pips. You're fed.