Pips for Breakfast: March 25, 2026

Japan is currently looking for its lost change in the couch cushions of the global economy.

On This Day

Historical data shows that this week usually marks the start of the great yen homecoming. Since the Japanese fiscal year ends on March 31, companies traditionally spend this time dragging their offshore profits back to Tokyo to make their balance sheets look presentable. In years past, this repatriation has turned USD/JPY into a bit of a slide, even when the rest of the world was busy doing something else.

The Play

USD/JPY: Look to sell the rallies. With the Japanese fiscal year-end looming, the natural gravity for this pair is currently pointed down. If we get a bounce toward the 151.50 level during the London session, it might be an opportunity to join the repatriation flow. Just don't get married to the position. Repatriation is a seasonal ghost, not a fundamental shift.

GBP/USD: Cable is the main event for the morning. If the CPI print at 03:00 UTC deviates even slightly from the 3.0% forecast, the pound will react violently. A 3.1% print sends us toward 1.2850. Anything lower than 2.9% and we're looking at a trip down to 1.2680. It's a binary outcome for people who enjoy high blood pressure with their tea.

What's on Deck

03:00 UTC GBP: CPI y/y (High Impact). The market expects 3.0%, which is exactly what it was last time. It's the inflation equivalent of a "to be continued" cliffhanger that nobody actually asked for.

04:45 UTC EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks. She's likely to stick to the script, but she occasionally drops a hint about June rate cuts that makes the euro wobble. Watch EUR/USD for any sudden jerks if she mentions "upside risks."

19:20 UTC USD: President Trump Speaks. This is a wildcard. Any mention of tariffs or Iran could send the safe-havens on a run while the rest of the market tries to figure out if he's being literal or just colorful.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: The Australian CPI came in cooler than expected at 3.3%. The Aussie dollar is currently nursing its wounds. It's the underdog today, but without a catalyst, it might just drift lower.

Oil: Watch the headlines. The distance between the US and Iran is currently wider than the gap between a trader's demo account and their real P&L. Any breakdown in ceasefire hopes will spike crude and help the CAD.

EUR/GBP: This pair is caught between Lagarde's rhetoric and the UK CPI. It's basically a contest to see which currency can look less attractive. Expect a lot of "choppy" price action that clears out stops on both sides.

Why Your P&L Cares

Markets don't always move because of what's happening. Sometimes they move because of what's about to end. We are entering the "window dressing" phase of the quarter. Fund managers are looking at their portfolios and realizing they need to sell their winners to lock in gains or buy their losers to rebalance.

Back in 2021, this week was a mess of erratic moves that defied logic. Why? Because a guy in a suit in Greenwich had to sell five billion dollars of something to satisfy a mandate he forgot about in January. Today's repatriation flows from Japan are the first sign of this seasonal weirdness. If you see USD/JPY drop 50 pips on no news, don't check Twitter. Just assume someone in Osaka is moving money home.

The Bottom Line

The pound is the volatility play for the morning, while the yen is the seasonal play for the day. Keep an eye on the clock and don't get caught in the repatriation crossfire. Now go make some pips. You're fed.