Pips for Breakfast: March 31, 2026

China’s factory activity is officially back in expansion mode, which is great news for everyone who enjoys buying things that come in shipping containers.

On This Day

March 31 is the Super Bowl of corporate accounting. In previous years, this date has been defined by Japanese firms frantically bringing their money home to make their balance sheets look presentable for the fiscal year-end. It is the one day of the year where the Yen’s value is determined more by auditors than by actual economic logic.

The Play

USD/JPY: Look for a "sell the rally" environment. The seasonal repatriation flows from Japanese corporates are a mechanical reality, not a suggestion. If the pair spikes on the US JOLTS data later today, it’s likely to face a wall of Yen buying as the Tokyo clock winds down on their fiscal year.

CAD/USD: Keep a close eye on the 08:30 UTC GDP print. The forecast is a flat 0.0 percent. With New Zealand’s business confidence currently in a tailspin, the "commodity currency" trade is looking fragile. A miss on Canadian growth could send the Loonie lower, especially if oil markets remain skeptical of the latest geopolitical headlines.

What's on Deck

EUR CPI Flash (05:00 UTC): Markets expect 2.6 percent. Anything higher and the Euro might actually remember it’s a currency that people are allowed to buy.

CAD GDP (08:30 UTC): High impact. A negative print here would be a loud wake-up call for the Bank of Canada.

US JOLTS (10:00 UTC): The forecast is 6.89M. This is the "vibes check" for the US labor market. If openings drop significantly, the "higher for longer" narrative for the dollar might finally get its wings clipped.

US Consumer Confidence (10:00 UTC): Forecast is 87.8. This measures how Americans feel about their wallets, which is usually "not great," but any number above the forecast could provide a late-day dollar bid.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

NZD/USD: The Kiwi is currently the uninvited guest at the risk-on party. Business confidence has collapsed and inflation stays sticky. It’s a bad combination for anyone hoping for a rally.

AUD/USD: The Aussie is riding the high of the China PMI data. However, the WSJ reports about Trump and the Strait of Hormuz suggest the "risk-on" sentiment might be built on sand. Don't get married to the upside here.

GBP/USD: Cable is stuck in the middle of quarter-end rebalancing flows. Expect choppy, directionless movement until the US session provides some actual data to chew on.

Why Your P&L Cares

Today is all about the "Rebalancing Act." Fund managers are currently adjusting their portfolios to meet their mandates for the end of Q1. This involves selling the winners and buying the losers to keep their asset allocations in line.

In the past, this has led to "nonsense moves" where a currency drops for no fundamental reason other than a guy in a glass office needing to hit a specific percentage of bonds. When you combine this with the Japanese fiscal year-end, today's price action will be driven by spreadsheets, not sentiment. If a move looks irrational today, it probably is. That doesn't mean it won't hit your stop loss.

The Bottom Line

Today is the day the market cleans its room before the new quarter begins. Watch the Japanese flows, mind the US labor data, and don't trust a breakout until the ink is dry on the Q1 books. Now go make some pips. You’re fed.