Pips for Breakfast: April 3, 2026

It is NFP day on Good Friday, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics decided the only thing better than high-impact volatility is high-impact volatility in a market with zero liquidity.

On This Day

Back in 2015, the US released payroll data on Good Friday just like they're doing today. Most of the world was off eating chocolate eggs while the US dollar took an absolute bath on a massive jobs miss. History doesn't always repeat, but it does enjoy a good prank.

The Play

The Trade: Long USD/JPY if the NFP print clears the 65K forecast. Since the Tokyo session is one of the few actually open, the pair will be the cleanest way to play dollar strength without getting caught in the holiday spread-widening of the Euro or Sterling. The Logic: It is tax season in the US. Corporations are bringing cash home to pay Uncle Sam, creating a natural floor for the Greenback that even a holiday can't fully dismantle. If the jobs data is even remotely "not terrible," the seasonal tailwinds should take over.

What's on Deck

Non-Farm Payrolls (08:30 UTC): The forecast is 65K. After last month's negative 92K, the bar is so low a toddler could crawl over it. Average Hourly Earnings: Watch this for inflation clues. If wages are rising, the Fed stays hawkish. The Ghost Town Factor: London and most of Europe are closed. When liquidity is thin, a standard market order can move the needle like a wrecking ball in a glass house.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: China's Services PMI slowed down, leaving the Aussie looking for a reason to exist. If the US data beats, expect the AUD to slide.

EUR/USD: European banks are shuttered today. Spreads might be wider than usual. Don't be the person who gets stopped out by a price spike that only exists on one broker's feed.

Oil Prices: Crude skyrocketed earlier this week, but the Loonie hasn't fully invited itself to the party yet. Watch USD/CAD if the NFP data creates a divergence.

Why Your P&L Cares

This week has been a fever dream of surging oil prices and stock markets that seem to be operating on pure vibes. The big story, however, is the April tax effect. Every year, the USD tends to strengthen as global earnings are repatriated for tax season. It's the one time of year where the IRS actually does something helpful for your portfolio, provided you're on the right side of the trade.

Combining this seasonal trend with a "hollowed-out" market due to Good Friday is a recipe for weirdness. In low-liquidity environments, the "real" move often happens in the first thirty minutes after a news release, followed by hours of drifting because there are no London desks open to provide a counter-trend. If you miss the initial move today, don't chase it into a vacuum.

The Bottom Line

It's the last trading day of a week that somehow felt like a month. Markets close at 5pm EST, and with the holiday overlap, the "Friday afternoon fade" could start much earlier than usual. When markets reopen Sunday evening, we'll be looking at the fallout from today's data and a fresh batch of inflation expectations.

Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.