Pips for Breakfast: April 7, 2026

New Zealand commodity prices are surging because the world is currently on fire, and the RBNZ is about to decide if that’s a good enough reason to stay boring.

On This Day

In 2020, the markets decided a global pandemic was basically solved because the infection data stopped being quite as catastrophic for exactly twenty-four hours. The Dow surged 1,600 points on nothing but vibes and hope. It turns out, investors are the ultimate "glass half full" people when they aren't busy panicking.

The Play

The real action is in NZD/USD. With commodity prices hitting near-record highs due to Middle East tensions, the Kiwi is looking surprisingly sturdy. However, the RBNZ is expected to hold rates at 2.25% tonight. If they deliver a "dovish hold" and ignore the price surge, the pair will likely give back its recent gains. Watch for a rejection at the current resistance levels if the 23:00 UTC press conference sounds like they’re asleep at the wheel.

Alternatively, keep an eye on USD/CAD. The Ivey PMI at 10:00 UTC is expected to soften. If it misses the 55.9 forecast while oil prices continue to grind higher, we’re going to see a very confused Loonie. Confusion usually leads to volatility, and volatility is where the money is.

What's on Deck

08:30 UTC USD: Core Durable Goods Orders. The forecast is 0.5%. If this beats, the "higher for longer" crowd will start shouting again.

10:00 UTC CAD: Ivey PMI. This is Canada’s way of telling us if they’re actually productive or just selling each other expensive houses.

22:00 UTC NZD: Official Cash Rate and RBNZ Statement. The main event. Expect the usual central bank speak where they say a lot of words to move the price without actually doing anything.

23:00 UTC NZD: RBNZ Press Conference. This is where the Governor might go off-script and make things interesting for your stop losses.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: Australian spending is holding firm despite inflation jumping. The Aussie is trying to ride the coattails of the Kiwi, but the falling job ads are a heavy backpack.

USD/JPY: Japanese household spending is falling. The BOJ is watching this with the kind of disappointment usually reserved for a child who failed a piano recital. Expect more verbal intervention if it drifts toward the 2026 highs.

EUR/USD: It’s tax season in the US. Historically, this means the Dollar finds a reason to strengthen as companies bring cash home. The Euro might find itself on the wrong side of that particular trade today.

Why Your P&L Cares

April is the month where the US Dollar often acts like a vacuum. It’s tax season, and the repatriation of foreign earnings creates a seasonal tailwind that most retail traders ignore until their shorts get squeezed. In previous years, this "April Effect" has bailed out the Greenback even when the fundamentals looked like a dumpster fire.

Combine that with the Durable Goods data this morning. If US businesses are still buying big-ticket items despite high rates, it proves the economy is either incredibly resilient or just really bad at math. Either way, it supports a stronger USD.

The Bottom Line

The Kiwi is the star of the show tonight, but the US Dollar is the one holding the script. Don't get married to the commodity rally if the RBNZ decides to play it safe. Now go make some pips. You're fed.