Pips for Breakfast: April 20, 2026

Oil prices jumped at the open because the Strait of Hormuz is closed again, proving once more that geography remains a trader's worst enemy.

On This Day

In 2020, WTI crude oil futures dropped to negative $37.63. People were essentially being paid to take barrels of the stuff, which made for a very confusing day for anyone who still believes in the laws of supply and demand. Traders spent most of the afternoon staring at their screens and questioning their career choices.

The Play

USD/CAD is the primary focus: We have a massive collision of catalysts here. Oil is spiking on the Hormuz news, which usually helps the Loonie, but we have high impact CAD CPI data hitting at 08:30 UTC.

Forecasts are looking for a hot 1.1% monthly jump. If the data hits the mark or beats, CAD could go on a tear, especially with Mark Carney out there talking about Canada needing to stand on its own two feet. If the CPI misses, expect USD/CAD to ignore the oil spike and drift higher as US tax season repatriation kicks into gear. Shorting USD/CAD on a heavy CPI beat looks like the high conviction move for the morning session.

What's on Deck

08:30 UTC CAD CPI: This is the big one. We're looking at Median, Trimmed, and Common CPI metrics all at once. It's a data dump that will tell us if the Bank of Canada is actually winning the war on prices or just pretending.

12:40 UTC ECB Lagarde Speaks: Christine Lagarde is taking the stage. Usually, she stays on script, but with the Middle East tension heating up, any hint of how energy prices affect the ECB's path could move the Euro.

18:45 UTC NZD CPI: For the late crowd or the early Asian session, New Zealand's quarterly inflation data is on the menu. Forecast is 0.8%. Expect volatility in the Kiwi if this deviates even slightly.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: It's languishing. Some of the Monday morning gaps are filling, but the Euro seems to have forgotten how to rally. Watch for Lagarde to either provide a floor or pull the rug.

USD/INR and USD/KRW: The trade deal talk between India and South Korea is a long term play, but it puts these pairs on the radar for those looking for emerging market diversions.

Oil (WTI): It didn't fill the gap at the open. When oil refuses to fill a gap during a geopolitical flare up, it usually means the move has more legs.

Why Your P&L Cares

History tells us that April 20 is a day for energy volatility. While we probably won't see negative prices again, the closure of Hormuz is a massive supply shock that makes the CAD CPI data even more sensitive.

Beyond the immediate news, we're in the thick of US tax season. Historically, the US dollar finds a bit of a bid during this window. Corporations move foreign earnings back to the US to settle up with the IRS, creating a natural demand for Greenbacks. Even if the CAD data is good, the "Tax Man Tailwinds" for the USD might limit how far USD/CAD can actually fall. You're trading against the CAD data, but you're also trading against the US Treasury's collection schedule.

The Bottom Line

The Strait is closed, the Loonie is on the clock, and the US dollar is feeling seasonally spicy. Watch those CAD prints at 08:30 UTC because they'll set the tone for the rest of the week. Now go make some pips. You're fed.