Pips for Breakfast: April 24, 2026

Japan’s inflation is playing hard to get, and the Bank of Japan is currently watching the data like a parent watching a teenager’s GPA.

On This Day

In 2020, the market was still reeling from the week oil prices decided that "zero" was merely a suggestion and went negative. Traders spent this day wondering if the US Dollar was a currency or the only life raft left on a very leaky boat.

The Play

USD/CAD breakout: Canada releases Retail Sales data at 08:30 UTC. While the forecast is a healthy 0.9%, we are deep in the heart of US tax season. This traditionally triggers a wave of USD repatriation as American firms bring cash home to pay the taxman. If Canadian retail numbers disappoint even slightly, the path of least resistance for USD/CAD is higher. Look for a move toward the 1.3850 handle if the US Revised UoM Sentiment later today also beats its dismal 48.5 forecast.

What's on Deck

GBP Retail Sales (02:00 UTC): Markets expect a flat 0.0%. Cable has been sluggish all week, and any negative print here could see traders dumping GBP before they head to the pub for the weekend.

SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks (04:00 UTC): Schlegel is taking the stage to likely explain why the Franc is doing exactly what it's doing. Watch for any hints about future rate cuts that might catch the market off guard.

CAD Retail Sales (08:30 UTC): The big one for the Loonie. Forecasters want to see 0.9%, but the "Core" number is also expected at 0.8%.

USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (10:00 UTC): This is the final Friday hurdle. It is a revised number, so unless there is a massive shift from the 48.5 forecast, the market might just yawn and start eyeing the exit.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warned of "decisive action" against speculators. This is the financial equivalent of a "Keep off the grass" sign that everyone is currently walking all over.
EUR/USD: The pair is caught between Eurozone stagnation and the US tax season dollar bid. It is currently moving with all the urgency of a sloth on a Sunday afternoon.
GBP/USD: Keep an eye on the 02:00 UTC print. If it misses, the 1.2400 support level is going to be tested early.

Why Your P&L Cares

This week was defined by two things, the 3-week Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension and the realization that Japan’s inflation isn't going away. The ceasefire news, pushed by the Trump administration, gave risk assets a much-needed breather, but the Yen remains the problem child of the FX world.

The seasonal "Tax Season" effect for the Greenback is real. When US corporations pull liquidity back to the states, the Dollar tends to find a bid regardless of what the Fed is whispering. If you are shorting the Dollar today, you are essentially betting against the IRS. Historically, that is a losing trade.

The Bottom Line

It's the final trading day of the week, and the liquidity will likely start to evaporate after the London fix. Markets close officially at 5pm EST (2pm PST), but the real moves usually wrap up shortly after the UoM Sentiment data.

This week we saw a significant shift in risk appetite thanks to the Middle East ceasefire news, while the BoJ inflation gauge surged to 3.1%, proving that Japan’s "transitory" inflation is actually quite sticky. When markets reopen Sunday evening, all eyes will be on whether the Yen intervention threats turn into actual sell orders.

Don't be the person holding a massive unhedged position over the weekend when a single headline can gap the market 100 pips. Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.