Pips for Breakfast: May 5, 2026

The RBA is about to hike rates into an empty room, which is one way to ensure nobody hears the borrowers screaming.

On This Day

Historically, May 5 is the day traders remember that the Sell in May and go away mantra exists. It’s the time of year when equity markets traditionally lose their nerve, pushing capital back into the waiting arms of safe havens. In 2010, this period kicked off the Flash Crash, proving that the only thing faster than a high frequency algorithm is a trader's realization that they're on the wrong side of a move.

The Play

The AUD/USD is the only chart that matters for the next few hours. With Australian household spending jumping 1.6% and a 25bp hike fully expected, the market has already priced in the move. The real trade is on the press conference. If Governor Bullock hints that this is the last hike for a while, expect a classic buy the rumor, sell the news reaction that sends the Aussie back toward 0.6550. If she stays hawkish, we're looking for a breakout above 0.6680.

On the other side of the world, watch USD/CHF. Swiss CPI is forecast at 0.3%. The SNB has a history of being quietly aggressive about their currency value. If inflation beats, the Swissie will likely tear through recent support levels while you're still trying to find Switzerland on a map.

What's on Deck

RBA Interest Rate Decision (00:30 UTC): The consensus is a move to 4.35%. Anything less will be a bloodbath for AUD bulls. RBA Press Conference (01:30 UTC): This is where the real volatility lives. Watch for any mention of the labor market cooling. US ISM Services PMI & JOLTS (10:00 UTC): A double feature for the Greenback. If job openings fall below 6.8M, the Fed pivot narrative gets another shot of adrenaline. ECB Lagarde Speaks (08:30 UTC): She usually sticks to the script, but any deviation regarding June rate cuts will move EUR/USD instantly.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Japan is still on holiday. Low liquidity means price action will be erratic. Don't trust a breakout that happens when Tokyo is asleep. EUR/USD: It’s currently caught in a range between 1.0720 and 1.0850. Lagarde's speech today is the most likely catalyst to test the upper boundary. AUD/NZD: This cross will be sensitive to the RBA statement. If the RBA is hawkish while the RBNZ stays quiet, the 1.1000 level is under serious threat.

Why Your P&L Cares

The Sell in May phenomenon isn't just an old wives' tale for people who wear fleece vests to work. It’s a structural shift in how big money allocates risk for the second quarter. When equities soften, the USD and JPY usually find a floor.

Combine that with today's RBA hike and you have a recipe for a volatile Asian session. Historically, hiking into a holiday-thinned market like we have today with Japan and China closed is a bold move. It amplifies every pip. If you're trading AUD pairs this morning, your stops need to be wide enough to accommodate the fact that half the world's liquidity is currently on a beach.

The Bottom Line

The RBA is doing the heavy lifting while the rest of the world waits for the US data dump. Watch the Aussie closely, keep an eye on the Swiss inflation print, and remember that "Sell in May" is only a good strategy if you actually sell. Now go make some pips. You're fed.