Pips for Breakfast: May 13, 2026

Yesterday's CPI print suggests inflation isn't just sticky, it's emotionally attached to the US economy.

On This Day

In previous Mays, the AUD/USD often finds out that "Sell in May" is less of a suggestion and more of a lifestyle choice for risk-averse funds. Historically, this week marks the point where traders realize the spring rally has run out of juice and start looking for the exit.

The Play

The Long USD/JPY: If PPI comes in at or above the 0.5% forecast, the Dollar will likely go on another tear. Since yesterday's CPI already lit the fuse, a hot PPI confirms the Fed won't be cutting rates anytime soon. The BOJ is trying to walk a path of normalization, but the Greenback is currently a very fast runner on a very steep hill.

The Short AUD/USD: With the "Sell in May" clouds gathering and the OECD chief worrying about trade reform ahead of Trump-Xi talks, the Aussie is the designated punching bag. If US inflation data stays hot, expect the 0.6500 floor to turn into a ceiling very quickly.

What's on Deck

08:30 UTC USD: Core PPI m/m. The forecast is 0.3%. After yesterday's hot CPI, this is the sequel that nobody asked for but everyone has to watch.

08:30 UTC USD: PPI m/m. Expected at 0.5%. If this exceeds the previous 0.5% print, the "inflation is transitory" crowd will officially be down to their last three members.

12:29 UTC USD: Fed Chair Nomination Vote. A "Pass" is the forecast. It's mostly political theater, but if the vote is even slightly contested, the market will treat the resulting uncertainty like a surprise bee sting.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

NZD/USD: Prime Minister Luxon is promising fiscal responsibility, which is the political equivalent of saying you'll definitely start going to the gym on Monday. The Kiwi is watching the 0.6000 level with visible anxiety.

EUR/USD: Still licking its wounds. If PPI confirms that energy costs are spreading through the US economy, the 1.0700 handle is in serious jeopardy.

GBP/USD: Cable is stuck in the middle. It's not as weak as the Euro but not as strong as the Dollar. It's the "middle child" of the G10 right now, waiting for someone to notice it.

Why Your P&L Cares

The "Sell in May" seasonal pattern isn't just a catchy rhyme for people who want to start their summer vacations early. It's rooted in the historical reality that risk appetite tends to dry up as the Northern Hemisphere heads toward the beach. When you combine that with Hot Inflation headlines, you get a recipe for the Carry Trade to get very messy, very fast.

Yesterday's CPI already rattled cages. Today's PPI is the confirmation bias traders are looking for. If inflation is spreading through energy costs, the "higher for longer" narrative isn't just a threat. It's the reality.

The Fed Chair Vote adds a layer of political spice. Markets hate uncertainty. While a pass is forecasted, any friction in the nomination process would send the Dollar into a tailspin of confusion. Meanwhile, the OECD chief is backing the BOJ's path, which is brave considering the BOJ's path usually resembles a hedge maze designed by someone who hates hedges.

The Bottom Line

The data is hot, the Fed is in the spotlight, and history says risk is a four-letter word this month. Keep your stops tight and your expectations modest. Now go make some pips. You're fed.