Pips for Breakfast: June 14, 2026

Peace in the Middle East is apparently worth about 10 billion dollars, which is roughly what Elon Musk spends on server racks during a slow week.

On This Day

In 2017, the Fed hiked interest rates despite inflation data being about as lively as a library on a Sunday morning. They called it "looking through the noise," which is central bank speak for "we already printed the press release and we aren't changing it now."

The Play

Short USD/CAD on the open: If the Iran deal holds, oil supply expectations will rise. The Canadian Dollar usually enjoys a bit of geopolitical drama, but a flood of Iranian crude is a different story. Watch for a gap down in CAD when the Asian session kicks off tonight at 5pm EST.

Long EUR/USD above 1.0920: The SpaceX IPO success has injected a strange dose of "everything is fine" into the markets. With Keir Starmer facing internal pressure in the UK, the Euro is currently the most stable thing in Europe, which is a terrifying thought. Look for a slow crawl toward 1.1000 this week.

What's on Deck

Sunday Open: Expect wide spreads and low liquidity. The market likes to pretend it's closed, but the machines are always watching for a stray tweet or a sudden peace treaty.

The Iran Factor: Keep an eye on the "interim deal" headlines. If that 10 billion dollars actually moves, the "war premium" in the markets will evaporate faster than a trader's dignity during a flash crash.

Mid-year Reviews: We are entering the seasonal window where central banks realize their January predictions were adorable but wrong. Watch for "policy adjustments" that are really just fancy ways of saying "we messed up."

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

GBP/USD: Keir Starmer is finding out that governing is much harder than complaining. The Burnham factor is making the pound look a bit shaky as we head into the London open tomorrow.
USD/JPY: If risk appetite remains high because of the SpaceX news, the Yen will continue its role as the world's favorite doormat.
Gold: Peace deals are usually bad for the shiny metal. If the Iran deal is real, gold might finally stop its "imminent apocalypse" pricing.

Why Your P&L Cares

History shows us that mid-June is when the "Goldilocks" narratives usually go to die. In 2018, the ECB ended their quantitative easing just as the Fed was getting aggressive. It was a mismatch that left a lot of retail accounts looking like a crime scene.

Today we have a similar setup. The SpaceX IPO has everyone feeling bullish, but the underlying political shifts in the UK and the sudden thaw in Iran-US relations are massive structural shifts. These aren't just headlines. They're the tectonic plates of the forex market moving an inch to the left. If you're positioned for "business as usual," tonight's Asian session might have some surprises for you.

The Bottom Line

The world is trying to be peaceful and Elon is selling more stock. It's a weird Sunday. Watch the 5pm EST open for gaps, and don't chase the first move. Now go prep your charts. You're fed.