Pips for Breakfast: July 10, 2026

Iran is realizing that owning the world's most important maritime choke point is a great way to make sure nobody forgets to call you back.

On This Day

On this day in 1985, the US Dollar was so strong that the G7 eventually had to hold an intervention just to ask it to stop being so popular. It didn't listen. Back then, a surging Greenback was a global crisis, today, it's just a Tuesday.

The Play

The Loonie is the main character this morning. With CAD Employment Change on the menu, USD/CAD is looking for an excuse to break its weekly range. If the numbers beat the modest 11.2K forecast, expect a quick dip toward the 1.3580 support level. If they miss, we're likely looking at a dull drift higher as the summer doldrums officially take the wheel. Keep your stops tight, liquidity is starting to look like a dry creek bed.

What's on Deck

Canada's Jobs Report: 08:30 UTC. The market expects 11.2K new jobs. Last month gave us 87.8K, which was likely a fluke or a very busy month for poutine stands. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 6.6%.

The Yen: Japan's producer prices just hit their fastest pace since 2023. This keeps the BOJ on the hook for a potential rate hike, even if they'd rather be doing literally anything else. Watch USD/JPY for sudden "intervention-style" drops if officials keep talking about fiscal trust.

Oil and Geopolitics: Iran's strategy in the Strait of Hormuz is working, keeping crude prices elevated and steady. This provides a floor for the CAD and NOK, provided the US doesn't decide to get loud about it.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Major-8 Kit →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: The pair is currently about as exciting as a documentary on cardboard. It's ranging. Don't overthink it, just watch the 1.0820 level.

GBP/USD: Cable had a decent run this week but seems to be running out of steam. Traders are booking profits before the weekend, which might lead to a slight drift lower.

Summer Doldrums: We are officially entering the low-liquidity season. This means moves can be exaggerated by a single large order. It's the "small pond, big fish" effect.

Why Your P&L Cares

This week was a masterclass in "wait and see." We saw Japan's PPI data keep the BOJ in the headlines and Iran remind everyone that they control the thermostat for global oil prices. Historically, mid-July is when trading desks start looking a bit empty.

When liquidity drops, the "true" value of a currency becomes a suggestion rather than a rule. A minor miss in the CAD jobs data today could cause a 50-pip swing that would normally only take 15. You're not trading the data as much as you're trading the lack of people available to take the other side of the trade.

The Bottom Line

It's Friday, the final act of a week defined by Yen jitters and geopolitical posturing. Markets close at 5pm EST (2pm PST), so don't get caught holding a bag when the lights go out. Next week, we'll be looking at US retail sales and more central bank speeches that will inevitably contradict everything we heard this week.

Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.