Pips for Breakfast: January 8, 2026

Pour the espresso and keep the steam wand away from your face. Here is your daily dose of market caffeine.

On This Day

In 2016, Chinese markets hit their "circuit breakers" and shut down for the day after just 29 minutes of trading. It was the financial equivalent of a fire drill where the doors are locked from the outside. The resulting panic sent USD/JPY on a 400-pip slide that reminded everyone why they keep a flask in their desk drawer.

The Play

USD/CHF: The Swiss CPI data hits at 02:30 UTC. If the number prints at 0.0% or lower, the SNB might start looking for the "rate cut" button. Trading the Swissie is usually about as exciting as watching paint dry on a glacier, but a miss today could send the pair higher as the Franc loses its safe-haven luster.

AUD/USD: The Aussie trade balance missed the mark by nearly two billion dollars this morning. Combine that with headlines about China hacking US emails, and the "risk-on" sentiment is looking a bit shaky. Look for opportunities to fade rallies toward 0.6750 if the US jobless claims later today don't provide a Dollar-selling catalyst.

What's on Deck

USD Unemployment Claims: At 08:30 UTC, we get the latest count of Americans looking for work. The forecast is 213K. Anything significantly higher will have traders whispering about a recession again, which is the market's favorite campfire ghost story.

CNY CPI and PPI: Late tonight at 20:30 UTC, we see how China's fight against deflation is going. If the PPI stays deeply negative, it's a sign that China is still exporting its economic headaches to the rest of the world.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: The "January Effect" means the Euro is currently acting like a teenager with a mood swing. Watch for heavy volatility around the 1.0950 level.
USD/JPY: Japanese real wages are down 2.8% year over year. The BOJ says the economy is fine, which is the central bank version of saying "it'll buff out" after totaling your car.
GBP/USD: Sterling is stuck in the mud. Without any UK-specific data today, it's just a passenger on the Greenback's ride.

Why Your P&L Cares

The second week of January is historically when the "new year, new me" trading plans meet the reality of institutional rebalancing. In 2021, on this exact day, the US labor market reported its first monthly job loss in nearly a year. The market looked at the data, shrugged, and kept buying stocks because they expected more stimulus.

That teaches us a valuable lesson about the January mood. Data matters, but the "narrative" matters more. Today, the narrative is focused on whether the US labor market is finally cooling enough to justify the Fed's pivot. If Unemployment Claims come in hot, the Dollar might take a seat, regardless of what the charts say. History shows us that early January price action is often a trap for the impatient.

The Bottom Line

The markets are moving, your coffee is getting cold, and the Swiss are about to tell us if their chocolate is getting more expensive. Now go make some pips. You're fed.