Pips for Breakfast: January 9, 2026

Good morning. Pour a double espresso because the first NFP Friday of 2026 is here to test your caffeine tolerance and your stop-losses.

On This Day

In 2019, the market was still frantically checking its pockets after a yen flash crash earlier in the week. Traders spent this date wondering if the "Apple warning" was the end of the world or just a very expensive glitch. It turns out, it was just January being January.

The Play

USD/CAD Data Collision: We have a rare "North American Showdown" at 08:30 UTC. Canada is expected to print a loss of 1.8K jobs while the US is hunting for a 66K gain. If the US numbers come in soft and Canada manages to surprise with a positive print, the Loonie could tear through recent resistance levels. Keep a close watch on the 1.3480 level. If NFP beats but the Unemployment Rate ticks up to 4.6 percent, expect a "bad is good" reaction where the dollar drops on renewed Fed cut hopes.

What's on Deck

08:30 UTC USD: Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP). The big one. The forecast is 66K. If it's a triple-digit surprise, expect the April rate cut talk to evaporate. 08:30 UTC CAD: Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. This usually gets buried by NFP, but the Loonie won't forget. 10:00 UTC USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. This is for the traders who haven't had enough volatility by brunch.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: Seasonal rebalancing is in full swing. Historically, this pair loves to fake a breakout in early January before reversing. Don't marry your bias before 11:00 UTC.
USD/JPY: China is curbing rare-earth exports to Japan. Geopolitics and semiconductors are a messy mix for the Yen, especially with Tokyo already looking nervous.
AUD/USD: China managed to avoid deflation in 2025, which is the economic equivalent of participation trophy territory. Still, it's providing a floor for the Aussie for now.

Why Your P&L Cares

The first NFP of the year is historically a mess of seasonal adjustments. Government statisticians are currently trying to figure out how many people actually went back to work after the holidays and how many are just staring at spreadsheets until February.

Goldman Sachs is already out here saying today's data shouldn't change the Fed's April plans. That's a bold claim for a Friday morning. Historically, when the "smart money" says a data point doesn't matter, it's usually because they're already positioned for it to matter quite a lot.

Early January is famous for the "January Effect" where funds rebalance their portfolios. This creates liquidity, but it also creates traps. We've seen years where the EUR/USD moves 150 pips on absolutely zero news just because a few pension funds decided they liked the look of the Euro better in 2026.

The Bottom Line

The data is heavy, the China-Japan trade spat is getting weird, and it's the first real test of the year. Watch the 08:30 UTC print like your margin account depends on it, because it probably does. Now go make some pips. You're fed.