Pips for Breakfast: January 11, 2026

Good morning. Pour a heavy splash of cream into that coffee, because the headlines are getting weird and the markets open in a few hours.

On This Day

In 2018, the ECB released meeting minutes that suggested they were finally ready to stop buying bonds. The Euro surged 1% in minutes, proving that even a central banker's whisper can move a mountain. It was a great day for the bulls and a very expensive day for anyone who thought "accommodative" meant "forever."

The Play

The Trade: Long EUR/USD at the 5pm EST open if it holds above 1.0820. Last week's Nonfarm Payrolls were "a touch soft," which is economist-speak for "the labor market is tired." When you combine that with the White House accidentally leaking the data early, the Dollar looks vulnerable.

The Hedge: Keep an eye on USD/JPY. While the US jobs data was weak, the headlines about a "Greenland invasion plan" are the kind of geopolitical absurdity that usually sends traders running to the safety of the Yen. If the Asian session tonight reacts to the Sunday tabloids, expect the Yen to catch a bid regardless of what the interest rates are doing.

What's on Deck

Market Open: Trading kicks off at 5pm EST tonight. Expect some gaps as the market digests a weekend of bizarre headlines.

Earnings Season: The big US banks and airlines report later this week. This usually dictates the mood for the USD more than the actual economic data. If the banks are profitable, the Dollar stays relevant. If they aren't, well, we have other problems.

Economic Data: It's a light calendar day for actual releases. We're mostly looking at the fallout from Friday's NFP and the total lack of a tariff decision. No news is usually good news, unless you're a volatility trader, in which case it's a tragedy.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

GBP/USD: Holding steady. The UK Sunday papers are busy with the Greenland story, but the Pound seems more interested in whether the Bank of England will actually cut rates this quarter.
AUD/USD: Sensitive to the "no tariff decision" news. No news on tariffs is a win for the Aussie. Look for a drift higher during the Sydney session tonight.
Credit Card Cap: Trump’s talk of a 10% cap on interest rates has zero enforcement details. It’s mostly just noise for now, but keep an eye on financial stocks, which might drag the USD down if investors get spooked by the "just talk."

Why Your P&L Cares

The "January Effect" isn't just a myth about stocks going up. In the forex world, it’s the month where big funds realize they didn't do their homework in December and start rebalancing everything at once. This leads to the kind of volatility that makes EUR/USD act like a penny stock.

Historically, this week in January is when trends for the first quarter are cemented. In 2015, we were just days away from the SNB "Frankengeddon" where they unpegged the Franc and destroyed half the retail accounts in London. We aren't predicting a black swan tonight, but when the White House is "inadvertently" leaking jobs data and talking about buying frozen landmasses, the "normal" rules of engagement are out the window.

The Bottom Line

The Dollar is shaky, the Euro is waiting for a reason to run, and the news cycle has entered the "satire" phase. Watch the open tonight for gaps and don't get married to a position before the banks report on Tuesday. Now go make some pips. You're fed.