Pips for Breakfast: January 13, 2026

Andrew Bailey is speaking at 5:00 UTC, which is a polite way of saying the Pound is about to get very nervous for no reason.

On This Day

Historical data for January 13 is usually the quiet part of the month where traders realize their New Year’s resolutions are already failing. Back in 2015, this was the final window of sanity before the Swiss National Bank decided that currency pegs were outdated and sent the market into a literal tailspin 48 hours later.

The Play

The core focus today is the USD CPI print at 08:30 UTC. The market is looking for 0.3% on the month. If we get a beat here, the USD/JPY rally likely finds a fresh pair of legs. The Yen is already reeling from Japan PM Takaichi’s hint at dissolving parliament. We're looking at a long USD/JPY play if CPI comes in hot, targeting the recent highs near the 152.00 handle.

If CPI misses, keep an eye on EUR/USD. It has been notoriously volatile in early January due to fund rebalancing. A soft inflation number could squeeze the shorts and send the pair back toward 1.0950 quickly. Don't get married to a direction until the 8:30 candle closes.

What's on Deck

GBP: Governor Bailey speaks at 05:00 UTC. Expect him to be vague, but the market will hang on every syllable regardless.

USD: The ADP Weekly Employment Change at 08:20 UTC is the opening act. It’s usually wrong, but it’s the only data we have until the main event.

USD: CPI at 08:30 UTC. This is the heavyweight. Forecast is 2.7% year over year. Anything higher and the "higher for longer" narrative gets a second life.

USD: New Home Sales at 10:00 UTC. Usually a secondary thought, but if the CPI number is weird, this could provide a secondary bounce for the Greenback.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: Consumer confidence just slipped to 92.9. Combine that with Trump’s tariff bluster and the Aussie is looking like it’s stuck in a basement.

GBP/USD: UK consumer spending is slumping. If Bailey sounds even remotely dovish, Cable might find a new home below 1.2600.

USD/JPY: The Yen plunge is the story of the week. Political instability in Japan is the gift that keeps on giving for Dollar bulls.

Why Your P&L Cares

The January Effect isn't just a myth about stocks. It’s the time when big institutional funds realize their portfolio allocations for the year are completely wrong and start moving billions of dollars to fix it. This creates the "Janus-faced" volatility we see in EUR/USD every year.

Historically, this week is when the "true" trend for Q1 starts to reveal itself. In previous years, the second week of January served as a wake up call for anyone who thought December’s trends would last forever. With Trump threatening 25% tariffs via social media and Japan’s government looking to reshuffle, the "predictable" 2026 outlook is already being shredded. Your P&L cares because the volatility isn't coming from the data alone. It’s coming from the realization that the world is slightly more chaotic than the spreadsheets predicted on January 1.

The Bottom Line

Today is about navigating the noise before the CPI storm hits. Keep your positions light until the US session opens. Now go find some pips. You're fed.