Pips for Breakfast: January 14, 2026

China's trade surplus is now officially large enough to buy a small continent, and the US consumer is currently deciding if they'll pay for it.

On This Day

Historically, mid-January is when the "I'll start my diet tomorrow" energy of the new year hits the FX markets. We usually see EUR/USD volatility spike as funds realize their 2025 hedges were wishful thinking. It's the annual tradition of realizing that rebalancing actually requires doing some actual work.

The Play

Today's 08:30 UTC data dump is a classic "choose your own adventure" for the Greenback. If Retail Sales and PPI both beat expectations, USD/JPY might actually try to find the moon. If they miss, expect EUR/USD to treat that 1.10 level like a trampoline. Watch for the initial spike to fade if the numbers conflict, because the market hates mixed signals almost as much as it hates a quiet Friday.

What's on Deck

It's a busy one at 08:30 UTC. We have the USD Retail Sales and PPI dropping at the exact same time, which is the economic equivalent of trying to watch two movies at once. The market expects the US consumer to keep spending like there's no tomorrow, with a 0.5% forecast. Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon is doing his annual impression of the guy holding the "The End Is Nigh" sign, reminding us that markets are underpricing risk. In Asia, Silver is having another growth spurt, and China's trade surplus just broke records, proving that people still really like buying things from China regardless of the headlines.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

Japan 5-year JGBs: Yields are up and demand is steady. The BOJ is watching this like a hawk watches a mouse with a death wish.
Silver (XAG/USD): It's leaping again. Metals are currently the overachievers of the commodity world, making everyone else look lazy.
EUR/USD: Volatility is the baseline here. Keep your stops wider than your holiday waistline until the 08:30 dust settles.

Why Your P&L Cares

Your P&L cares about today because historical January patterns show that this is the week where the "January Effect" either solidifies or evaporates. In previous years, the second week of January has been a graveyard for traders who assumed the December trends would last forever. Jamie Dimon's warning isn't just noise. It's a reminder that when everything looks "resilient," the market usually stops looking for the exits. China's massive surplus also suggests the global trade machine is still humming, even if the geopolitical mood is sour. If the Retail Sales data today shows the US consumer is finally tired, the USD could see a correction that makes the December dip look like a minor stumble.

The Bottom Line

The data at 08:30 will tell us if the US economy is a marathon runner or just a guy who ran one block and is about to pass out. Keep your eyes on the Retail Sales print and your hands off the "all in" button until the numbers stop spinning. You're fed. Now go make some pips.