Pips for Breakfast: January 15, 2026

Eleven years ago today, the Swiss National Bank decided that floors were merely suggestions, and the market found out exactly how hard the basement could be.

On This Day

In 2015, the SNB abruptly scrapped its 1.20 floor on EUR/CHF. The franc surged 30% in minutes, wiping out retail accounts and several institutional brokers who thought "guaranteed stops" were a real thing. It remains the gold standard for central bank betrayal.

The Play

GBP/USD Long: UK GDP arrives at 02:00 UTC. The market expects a return to growth at 0.1%. If the number beats, look for Cable to snap out of its recent range and target 1.2840. The UK housing outlook is brightening, and foreign investment is climbing, so the fundamental tailwinds are actually there for once.

USD/CHF Counter-Trend: It is the anniversary of the Great De-pegging. While the SNB likely won't choose today to ruin lives again, liquidity can get thin on these dates as PTSD-afflicted algos pull back. If the US manufacturing data at 08:30 UTC misses, look for a quick move toward 0.8600.

What's on Deck

GBP GDP (02:00 UTC): This is the big one for the London session. A 0.1% forecast follows a -0.1% print. Anything flat or negative will likely send the pound into a tailspin.

US Jobless Claims (08:30 UTC): Forecast is 215K. The labor market has been stubbornly resilient. If this number comes in lower, the "higher for longer" narrative gets another shot of espresso.

Empire State & Philly Fed (08:30 UTC): Two manufacturing surveys at the exact same time. It is a great way for the market to get confused if one is green and the other is red. Watch for knee-jerk USD volatility.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

XAG/USD: Silver was slammed lower during the Asian session. It is currently retesting support levels while gold traders watch nervously from the sidelines.

USD/CAD: Mark Carney is in China trying to fix Canada’s diplomatic relations. It is a symbolic visit, but if he says something about trade or commodities, the loonie might actually move.

USD/JPY: Japan’s PPI came in at a sleepy 0.1%. The Yen is currently trading like it has nowhere to be, though that usually changes the moment everyone stops paying attention.

Why Your P&L Cares

The 2015 "Black Swan" event is the ultimate reminder that your broker is not your mother. When the SNB pulled the floor, liquidity vanished. Orders were being filled 2,000 pips away from the market price. It is the reason we talk about "tail risk" with such reverence.

We are also in the middle of the January Effect. This is the time of year when institutional funds rebalance their books and volatility picks up because everyone is trying to prove they're smart in the first quarter. EUR/USD is historically choppy this week, so don't get married to a direction until the US data dump is cleared.

The Bottom Line

History doesn't always repeat, but it often prints a similar candle. Protect your capital, respect the Swiss, and remember that a "floor" is just a ceiling for someone else. Now go make some pips. You're fed.