Pips for Breakfast: January 22, 2026

The BOJ is scheduled to do nothing today, and markets are terrified they might actually do it.

On This Day

In 2015, Mario Draghi decided the Eurozone needed a trillion euros and a hug. The ECB launched its massive QE program, promising to buy 60 billion euros of bonds every month until the economy felt better. EUR/USD dropped 200 pips before the press conference even ended.

The Play

Keep your eyes on AUD/USD. The jobs report out of Australia was an absolute banger, but it's walking into a US dollar buzzsaw. If the US GDP at 08:30 UTC hits the 4.3% forecast, the Aussie's recent gains might vanish faster than your interest in a New Year's resolution.

The secondary move is NZD/USD. With CPI data dropping at 16:45 UTC, the Kiwi is looking sensitive. A miss on the 0.5% forecast could trigger a sell-off, especially if traders are already repositioning for the BOJ meeting later tonight. If you're trading the Kiwi, keep your stops wide or your expectations low.

What's on Deck

08:30 UTC USD: Final GDP q/q. The market expects 4.3%. Anything higher makes the Fed look like they've actually stuck the landing.
08:30 UTC USD: Unemployment Claims. Forecast is 209K. A steady number keeps the "higher for longer" narrative alive.
10:00 UTC USD: Core PCE Price Index. This is the Fed's favorite flavor of inflation data. If it stays at 0.2%, expect the dollar to hold its ground.
16:45 UTC NZD: CPI q/q. Big volatility potential for all NZD pairs.
22:30 UTC JPY: BOJ Policy Rate and Outlook Report. They'll likely stay below 0.75%, but the "Outlook" is where they usually hide the surprises.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Traders are pricing in a boring BOJ meeting, which usually means the yen will find a way to be dramatic anyway.
EUR/USD: It's the "January Effect" window. Expect erratic rebalancing flows that defy logic and your carefully drawn trend lines.
AUD/NZD: With both countries dropping high impact data within hours of each other, this cross is going to be a blender.
The AI Side Hustle: News that retired jet engines might power AI data centers is the most "2026" thing possible. If it moves the needle on tech stocks, expect the USD to catch a bid.

Why Your P&L Cares

History tells us that late January is when central banks love to remind us who's in charge. That 2015 ECB move wasn't just about bonds, it was about proving the bank could still move the needle. We see similar energy today with the BOJ.

When a central bank is expected to do nothing, the risk isn't the policy rate. It's the language. One misplaced word in the BOJ Outlook Report can wipe out a week's worth of carry trade profits. Combine that with the US GDP print, and you have a recipe for a "volatility event" that looks great on a chart tomorrow but feels terrible in your account today.

The Bottom Line

The US dollar is the main character until the BOJ takes the stage tonight. Trade the data, but don't get married to the move. Now go make some pips. You're fed.