Pips for Breakfast: January 23, 2026

The Bank of Japan just reminded us that doing absolutely nothing is a full time job for some people.

On This Day

In 2015, the ECB finally caved and launched a massive quantitative easing program. Traders who had been betting against the Euro suddenly found themselves with enough liquidity to drown a small nation. It was a legendary day for volatility and a terrible day for anyone who hates the sound of printing presses.

The Play

It is Friday, which means we are looking for the exit while everyone else is still trying to find their keys. The Setup: Watch GBP/USD following the 04:30 UTC PMI release. British consumer confidence is ticking up, but the retail sales forecast is a flat 0.0%. If the Services PMI beats the 51.7 forecast, we could see a late week squeeze toward 1.2750. However, if the data misses, the Friday afternoon profit taking will be aggressive. Don't marry your positions today. Take your pips and run before the 5pm EST liquidity drain.

What's on Deck

BOJ Press Conference (01:30 UTC): Governor Ueda is up. The bank kept rates on hold but revised inflation forecasts higher. Markets are looking for any hint that "soon" actually means "soon."

GBP Retail Sales (02:00 UTC): Forecast is 0.0% compared to the previous -0.1%. It is the classic "not getting worse" play for the Pound.

Flash PMIs (03:15 - 04:30 UTC): We get a data dump from France, Germany, and the UK. Germany's manufacturing PMI is the one to watch. Anything below 47.8 and the EUR/USD bulls will likely give up on the week entirely.

ECB's Lagarde (05:00 UTC): She is speaking at the WEF Meetings. Expect her to talk about everything except the specific date of the next rate cut.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: The pair is twitching after the BOJ decision. Higher inflation forecasts usually mean a stronger Yen, but the market needs to see Ueda actually pull the trigger first.

AUD/USD: China is considering lowering its 2026 growth target. This is not the news the Aussie Dollar wanted to hear as it tries to claw back some dignity.

EUR/USD: The "January Effect" is making the Euro behave like a teenager, moody and unpredictable. Watch the German data to see if the pair can hold its weekly range.

Why Your P&L Cares

This week was a masterclass in central bank hesitation. We saw the BOJ stand still while the market begged for movement, and we watched the US Dollar maintain its grip as global growth concerns started to leak out of China.

Historically, the final Friday of January is when the "rebalancing" volatility peaks. Large funds are finishing their monthly adjustments, and the January Effect means we are seeing the first real trends of 2026 take shape. If you look at your P&L and see a lot of green, it is because you respected the ranges. If you see red, you probably tried to fight a trend that hasn't actually started yet.

The Bottom Line

It's the end of the trading week. We've survived a heavy dose of PMIs and a Japanese central bank that remains the world champion of waiting. Markets close at 5pm EST, and the weekend is for resting, not staring at stagnant 1 minute charts.

Next week, we get a fresh look at US GDP and the initial prep for the February central bank circuit. Keep an eye on Sunday evening's open, as any weekend headlines from the WEF in Davos could create some gaps.

Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.