Pips for Breakfast: February 1, 2026

Silver just took a 30% haircut, proving once again that "to the moon" usually ends with a crash landing in a very expensive desert.

On This Day

In 2021, a group of internet enthusiasts tried to corner the silver market. It resulted in a massive spike followed by a soul-crushing collapse, reminding everyone that the silver market is far too large to be moved by a few hashtags.

The Play

The theme for the week ahead is Aggressive Continuation. February traditionally picks up exactly where January left off, and right now, January left us with a hot US PPI and a metals market that seems to be falling through a trap door.

Short XAU/USD: Gold is down 10% and looking heavy. If it doesn't find a bid when markets open this evening at 5pm EST, we're likely looking at a continued slide. Use the Sunday gap to gauge sentiment. If it gaps down and stays there, the sellers are still in control.

Long USD/CAD: Canada GDP stalled at 0.0% while US producer prices are heating up at 3.0%. This is a classic policy divergence play. The path of least resistance for the Loonie is down, which means this pair should continue its climb throughout the week.

What's on Deck

The calendar is quiet for the next few hours, but the headlines are not. Keep a close eye on any news regarding Iran and those ships. Geopolitical tension usually sends traders running toward USD/JPY for safety, so expect some gaps when the Asian session kicks off tonight.

Germany's inflation beat expectations slightly, but the Euro is struggling to care. The real story this week will be whether the US Dollar can maintain its PPI-fueled momentum or if the market decides it has priced in enough hawkishness for one month.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

GBP/USD: Cable is currently a passenger on the Dollar Express. Expect it to mirror the Euro's struggles unless we get a surprise out of the UK.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is highly sensitive to the gold crash. If metals don't bounce tonight, the AUD will likely be the first currency to hit a new weekly low.
Volatility: Weekend headlines about Iran mean the 5pm EST open could be messy. If you don't have stops in place, you're not trading, you're gambling.

Why Your P&L Cares

History suggests that February is the month of The Great Follow-Through. While mid-month often brings reversals, the first week is almost always a push in the direction of the prevailing trend.

In 2018, this exact window saw a massive spike in volatility as the market finally realized that inflation wasn't just a myth. We're seeing a similar vibe now. When PPI comes in at 3.0% against a 2.7% expectation, it's a signal that the "inflation is dead" narrative was premature.

The 30% drop in silver isn't just a commodity quirk. It's a liquidity signal. When the volatile stuff gets liquidated this quickly, it usually means big players are moving into the safety of the Greenback. Your P&L will thank you for not fighting that tide.

The Bottom Line

The markets open at 5pm EST and they aren't looking for excuses to be kind. Use the afternoon to tighten your plan and remember that "flat GDP" is just the economic version of a participation trophy. Now go make some pips. You're fed.