Pips for Breakfast: January 30, 2026

The Dollar is bidding on the rumor that Kevin Warsh might be the next person to explain inflation to a skeptical public, proving once again that markets value high-level gossip more than actual data.

On This Day

In 2015, the FX market spent late January trying to remember what a stable Swiss Franc looked like after the SNB chose chaos earlier in the month. It was a stark reminder that when a central bank says a policy floor is "sustainable," you should probably start looking for the exit.

The Play

USD/CAD: This is the main event at 8:30 UTC. We have a high-impact data collision between Canadian GDP and U.S. PPI. If Canadian growth continues to mimic a slow-moving glacier while U.S. producer prices beat the 0.2% forecast, the Loonie is going to have a very long Friday. Look for a breakout above the weekly highs if the divergence is clear.

EUR/USD: German Prelim GDP and CPI are the morning appetizers. The market is looking for a 0.2% growth figure. Anything less, and the Euro might spend the final session of the month sliding toward support as funds finish their January rebalancing.

What's on Deck

German Prelim CPI (02:29 UTC): Expected at 0.0%. It's not exciting, but any deviation will give the Euro an early morning jolt.

German Prelim GDP (04:00 UTC): Forecast is 0.2%. Europe's largest economy is trying to prove it still has a pulse.

U.S. PPI and Canadian GDP (08:30 UTC): The heavy hitters. These two will dictate the direction of the North American session and likely set the tone for the weekly close.

CNY Manufacturing PMI (20:30 UTC): This drops after the New York close. It will be the first thing traders look at when markets reopen on Sunday evening.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

GBP/USD: Trump is already pressuring the UK over its ties to China. Cable has been twitchy all week, and any further "diplomatic resets" from Starmer could keep the volatility alive through the 5pm close.

USD/JPY: Japan’s factory output wasn't as bad as feared, but the Yen remains the market's favorite punching bag whenever U.S. Treasury yields tick higher.

AUD/USD: The Aussie is caught between a stabilizing U.S. political landscape and the looming Chinese PMI data. It's likely to range-trade until the Sunday open.

Why Your P&L Cares

This week was dominated by the "Warsh Effect." The mere mention of Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed Chair pick sent the Dollar on a tear, overshadowing some actually decent manufacturing data. We also saw a rare moment of bipartisan cooperation as Trump and Senate Democrats struck a deal to avoid a government shutdown. Markets generally hate uncertainty, so they greeted this band-aid solution with a collective sigh of relief and more USD buying.

Historically, the final Friday of January is a rebalancing circus. Institutional players are squaring up their "January Effect" bets. If you've had a green week, watch out for the 3pm EST liquidity fade. Traders often head for the exits early on Friday, and thin liquidity can turn a minor move into a stop-hunting expedition.

The Bottom Line

We are at the finish line of the first month of 2026. It's Friday, so keep an eye on the clock. Markets close at 5pm EST, and the "weekend effect" usually kicks in well before that. If you're still in a position by 4pm, you aren't trading, you're gambling on Monday's gap.

Next week brings the Non-Farm Payrolls circus and an RBA interest rate decision. The Sunday evening open will be all about that Chinese PMI data, so don't be surprised if the Aussie or Kiwi gaps when the lights come back on. Square your boards, lock in your gains, and don't let a late-session spike ruin your weekend.

Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.