Pips for Breakfast: February 10, 2026

Washington and New Delhi just shook hands on a half-trillion dollar trade deal, proving that nothing brings two nations together quite like the mutual desire to move an ungodly amount of shipping containers.

On This Day

Historically, February is the month where January's optimism goes to die. In 2021, everyone was busy buying the dip until they realized the dip had a basement. Today usually marks the start of the mid-month wobble where trends get tired and traders get cranky.

The Play

The Retailer's Revenge: The forecast for US Retail Sales is a modest 0.4 percent. If the American consumer proves they still have a pulse and a credit card, expect USD/JPY to keep its current upward momentum. The pair already caught a bid during the Asia-Pacific session thanks to a rally in Japanese stocks. A beat on the retail data makes 152.00 a very real possibility. If the data misses, watch for a quick flush in USD/CAD as traders rethink the North American growth narrative.

What's on Deck

USD Core Retail Sales (08:30 UTC): This is the headline act. Markets want to see if the consumer is actually cooling off or just taking a breather before another spending spree.

USD Employment Cost Index (08:30 UTC): This is the Fed's favorite way to measure if workers are getting too expensive. If this comes in hot, the "higher for longer" narrative gets another lease on life.

CNY CPI and PPI (20:30 UTC): China's deflation is basically the world's discount bin. If these numbers stay deeply negative, the AUD will likely be the first casualty as the "China recovery" story hits another pothole.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/INR: Keep an eye on the rupee. A 500 billion dollar trade deal is a lot of money, even if it takes a decade to materialize.

WTI Crude: Vitol says we aren't hitting peak oil until the mid-2030s. Apparently, the energy transition is moving at the pace of a government permit application.

EUR/USD: The pair is currently stuck in a range that can only be described as aggressively boring. It needs the US data to provide it with a personality.

Why Your P&L Cares

The seasonal mid-month reversal isn't just a superstition. It's usually when the hard data starts to clash with the "New Year, New Me" narratives that drove January price action. Right now, we have a US administration slashing climate regulations and signing massive trade deals. This is a supply-side fever dream.

If today's Retail Sales and ECI data match that energy, the dollar becomes a wrecking ball again. Historically, these mid-February shifts are where traders who over-leveraged on a "weak dollar" thesis start looking for new careers in carpentry. Don't be the person fighting the trend when the consumer is still clearly addicted to shopping.

The Bottom Line

The American consumer is about to tell us if the soft landing is a reality or just a very expensive hallucination. Watch the 08:30 numbers like your account balance depends on it, because today, it actually does. Now go find some liquidity. You're fed.