Pips for Breakfast: February 11, 2026

NFP day is the one day a month where we all look at a single, likely-to-be-revised number and decide the fate of the global reserve currency.

On This Day

In 2016, the markets spent mid-February realizing that negative interest rates were actually a thing. It was a simpler time when we thought the BOJ was the only bank capable of truly baffling the public.

The Play

USD/JPY: This is the pair to watch as the NFP data drops at 08:30 UTC. With JPY already climbing during the Asia-Pacific session and China showing persistent deflation, the dollar is on thin ice. If the employment change misses that already low 66K forecast, we could see a violent unwinding of the January dollar trend.

AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently ignoring China's inflation miss. This usually doesn't last. If the US labor market shows any signs of cooling, the AUD might catch a bid, but keep your stops tight. The "TACO time" trade drama with India is adding a layer of geopolitical spice that the markets haven't quite priced in yet.

What's on Deck

08:30 UTC USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m. Forecast is 0.3%. If this comes in hot, the Fed might stay grumpy for longer, regardless of the headline job count.

08:30 UTC USD: Non-Farm Employment Change. The forecast is 66K. That is a very small number for a very large economy. Anything under 50K will be treated as a disaster.

08:30 UTC USD: Unemployment Rate. Holding steady at 4.4% is the consensus. If this ticks up to 4.5%, expect the word "recession" to trend on whatever is left of social media by lunch.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

China CPI: Came in at 0.2% against a 0.4% expectation. Deflation is a stubborn houseguest that China can't seem to evict. This puts pressure on the Yuan and anything that relies on Chinese demand.

USD/INR: India is reportedly winning the trade deal negotiations with the Trump administration. If the "TACO time" headlines continue, the Rupee might actually find some rare momentum.

House Vote: The failure of the House vote regarding tariff repeals suggests that trade volatility is the new permanent resident of your Bloomberg terminal.

Why Your P&L Cares

Historically, the second week of February is when the "January Effect" starts to look more like a "January Mistake." This is the seasonal pivot point where trends established at the start of the year get tested by cold, hard data.

Today's NFP print isn't just a number. It's the catalyst for the mid-month reversal we see in the seasonal patterns. If the US labor market is truly cooling to the tune of 66K jobs, the "higher for longer" narrative for the USD starts to look like "lower for sooner."

The JPY and AUD strength we saw overnight suggests that the smart money is already hedging for a dollar disappointment. When the House fails to pass votes and trade deals become about who's "kicking butt," the JPY tends to regain its status as the world's favorite security blanket.

The Bottom Line

The forecast for NFP is so low it's almost an invitation for a surprise. Don't get married to your January positions. The market is looking for an excuse to flip the script, and a labor miss is the perfect reason. Now go make some pips. You're fed.