Pips for Breakfast: February 19, 2026

Japan's machinery orders just surged 19.1%, which is either a sign of a massive industrial rebirth or a very expensive clerical error.

On This Day

Mid-February is traditionally the Wednesday of the trading year. History shows this is the sweet spot where January's momentum realizes it's out of breath and starts looking for the nearest exit. In previous years, this specific window has been the graveyard for many early-year breakout attempts.

The Play

AUD/USD: The Australian jobs data was actually decent, with unemployment holding steady at 4.1%. Usually, this would send the Aussie to the moon, but we're firmly in the seasonal reversal zone. If the pair fails to break and hold 0.6580 during the London session, it's a prime candidate for a fade back toward 0.6450.

USD/JPY: Keep a very close eye on the 151.00 level. The machinery orders were a massive shocker, but the market seems more worried about Sanae Takaichi's views on fiscal discipline than actual economic productivity. If the USD data later today comes in soft, the Yen might finally find the floor it's been looking for.

What's on Deck

USD Unemployment Claims: At 08:30 UTC, we get the weekly pulse check on the American worker. The forecast is 223K. If it comes in much lower, expect the dollar to act like it owns the place again.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Also at 08:30 UTC. The forecast is a modest 7.5. Manufacturing data has been about as predictable as a coin toss lately, so watch for a knee-jerk reaction in the majors.

RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks: At 18:00 UTC, the Kiwi gets its turn. Central bank speeches at the end of the day are basically the market's version of a late-night talk show, except with fewer jokes and more systemic risk.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: It's currently behaving like a teenager who refuses to get out of bed. It's stuck in a tight range until the US data dump gives it a reason to care.

GBP/USD: Cable is hovering near support. A weak Philly Fed print could be the trampoline it needs to bounce back toward 1.2700.

NZD/USD: Breman's tone will determine if the Kiwi flies or stays grounded. The market is leaning toward a hawkish tilt, which usually means a disappointment is lurking in the shadows.

Why Your P&L Cares

The seasonal context is the real MVP here. In years like 2018 and 2021, the dollar spent the second half of February undoing everything it accomplished in January. We're seeing that tension play out in real-time right now.

The Japan machinery orders are a massive outlier. A 19.1% jump isn't just a beat, it's a beatdown of the analysts' expectations. This suggests that beneath the "Japan is in trouble" narrative, there's a lot of capital being deployed. If you're ignoring the JPY crosses today, you're missing the only real fireworks in the room. Meanwhile, the Aussie job market is tight, but if the global growth narrative wobbles, that 4.1% unemployment rate won't save the AUD from a technical correction.

The Bottom Line

The data is messy, the trends are tired, and the robots in Japan are buying gear like it's 1999. Watch the USD prints at 08:30 UTC to see if the greenback still has its crown or if it's ready for a nap. Now go make some pips. You're fed.