Pips for Breakfast: February 18, 2026

The FOMC is about to release its diary from two weeks ago, and the market is already practicing its shocked face.

On This Day

Historically, February 18 is the point where the unbridled optimism of the new year hits a brick wall of reality. In previous years, this mid-month window has seen the "January trend" suddenly realize it has overstayed its welcome and head for the exit. It is the economic equivalent of realizing your New Year's resolution to eat only kale was a terrible mistake.

The Play

Short GBP/USD on a CPI miss: The market is looking for UK inflation to cool down to 3.0%. If the number starts with a two, expect the British Pound to lose its stiff upper lip very quickly. The Bank of England is looking for any excuse to stop being the "high rate" outlier. Wait for the FOMC fluff: Don't get chopped up in the New York morning session. The real move happens at 14:00 UTC when the Fed reveals exactly how many times they used the word "patient" in their last meeting. If they sound even remotely worried about inflation, the Dollar will bid.

What's on Deck

02:00 UTC GBP: CPI y/y. Forecast is 3.0%. A beat keeps the Pound alive, a miss sends it to the basement. 08:30 UTC USD: Durable Goods Orders. The forecast is a nasty -1.8%. This usually indicates that big companies are holding onto their wallets, which isn't great for the "soft landing" narrative. 14:00 UTC USD: FOMC Meeting Minutes. High impact, high volatility, and a high probability of traders seeing things that aren't actually there. 19:30 UTC AUD: Employment Change. The forecast is 20.0K. Australia's labor market is the only thing keeping the RBA from going full dove.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

NZD/USD: Currently feeling sorry for itself after Governor Breman decided "dovish" was the tone of the week. Watch for a bounce if the USD Durable Goods data is a disaster. USD/JPY: Japan exports surged more than expected, but the Yen is still acting like it's allergic to strength. Japan's $33bn gas power project for data centres shows they're betting big on AI, even if they aren't betting on their currency. AUD/USD: Wage growth was exactly as expected. It's the economic equivalent of a lukewarm glass of water. All eyes move to the employment data tonight.

Why Your P&L Cares

The seasonal mid-month reversal is a recurring ghost in the machine. Traders spend January pricing in a specific vision of the year, and by February 18, the data usually starts to disagree with them. If you're still holding a "January trade" that hasn't moved in three days, you're not a swing trader, you're a hostage. Today's combination of UK inflation and Fed minutes is designed to break those stale trends. Historically, this is when the market separates the people who have a plan from the people who just have a feeling.

The Bottom Line

The Fed is about to tell us what they thought two weeks ago, which is basically an eternity in market time. Watch the GBP CPI for an early morning jolt, and don't get married to your biases before the FOMC minutes hit the tape. Now go make some pips. You're fed.