Pips for Breakfast: February 22, 2026

President Trump decided 10% was just a suggestion and opted for 15% instead, proving that in 2026, the only thing more volatile than the markets is the trade policy.

On This Day

In 1985, the US Dollar was so dominant that the British Pound nearly reached parity. It was a simpler time when globalization wasn't a dirty word and the Greenback was the only kid with a lunchbox.

The Play

The Tariff Bounce: When markets open this evening, the USD will likely gap higher. The Supreme Court striking down previous tariffs just means more legal chaos, which the market usually rewards with a stronger Greenback. Buy USD/CAD on the open if it holds above its recent pivot. The Kiwi Short: New Zealand Retail Sales tonight are expected to be a shadow of their former selves. If the number misses the 0.6% forecast, look for a quick short on NZD/USD as the Asian session gets moving.

What's on Deck

NZD Retail Sales (16:45 UTC): Forecast is 0.6% against a previous 1.9%. This is a massive expected drop. If the actual number has a zero in front of the decimal, the Kiwi is going to have a very long night. The Trump Speech: No set time, but the "soon" label usually means "right when you step away from your desk." Watch for headlines regarding Section 122. This is the new legal tool the administration wants to use to bypass the court's interference.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: The Aussie is the designated punching bag for US trade tensions. If the 15% tariff talk stays hot, expect this pair to test new lows tonight.
EUR/USD: The Euro is currently about as popular as a cold cup of tea. It is struggling to find any reason to exist above 1.05.
USD/JPY: Keep an eye on the 150.00 level. The BOJ is watching, but they usually wait for everyone to be asleep before they do anything interesting.

Why Your P&L Cares

February usually likes to pretend it's going to reverse the January trend before it doubles down. The 1985 comparison is relevant because the USD eventually got so strong that central banks had to stage a massive intervention. We aren't at that stage yet, but when a 15% tariff enters the chat, the "King Dollar" narrative gets a fresh set of tires.

If the Supreme Court keeps fighting the White House, we aren't just trading economics. We are trading a constitutional crisis with a side of leverage. Markets hate uncertainty, but they love the USD when things get weird. Use the Sunday evening open to gauge if the tariff news is fully priced in or if the market is ready to panic buy more Greenbacks.

The Bottom Line

The world is getting more expensive and the charts are getting more crowded. Get your levels ready before the 5pm EST open tonight. Now go make some pips. You're fed.