Pips for Breakfast: February 23, 2026

The US Supreme Court and China are finally in agreement that the US Dollar should probably be somewhere else, and crypto decided to join the exodus.

On This Day

In 2021, Jerome Powell spent this day telling Congress that inflation was a minor inconvenience. History eventually corrected his homework, but not before the bond market had a collective nervous breakdown. Traders who believed the "transitory" narrative found out the hard way that "temporary" is a relative term in Washington.

The Play

The theme for today is USD/JPY weakness: Since Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, the move we saw in the Asian session has no natural predators. The pair was slammed lower alongside crypto, and without Tokyo desks to provide liquidity, the slide could get slippery.

Look for a minor retracement toward 149.20 during the London open to build a short position. If the US customs news regarding IEEPA tariffs continues to weigh on the greenback, we could see a test of the 147.50 level before Waller even clears his throat.

What's on Deck

USD: FOMC Member Waller speaks at 08:00 UTC. He’s usually the guy who reminds everyone that the Fed isn't done breaking things yet. If he stays hawkish, the USD might find some floor.

EUR: ECB President Lagarde speaks at 12:30 UTC. She has a talent for speaking for forty minutes without changing anyone's mind. Watch EUR/USD for a sudden spike if she accidentally implies that rate cuts are still a summer dream.

Geopolitics: The FT report about Iran and Russia signing a deal for air-defence missiles is the kind of weekend news that usually makes the Swiss Franc look very attractive. Keep an eye on EUR/CHF.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: China's push for the US to drop unilateral tariffs is giving the Aussie a bit of a lift. If the US actually listens, which is a big if, the AUD could be the biggest winner of the week.

BTC/USD: Crypto was part of the "slammed lower" club overnight. After a weekend of optimism, the sudden drop suggests some big players decided to take their wins and go home. Support sits near $58,000.

GBP/USD: Cable is stuck in the middle of the USD weakness and the geopolitical noise. It’s currently acting like a teenager who can't decide which drama to care about more.

Why Your P&L Cares

Historical patterns for late February suggest we’re in the "correction zone." Typically, the trends that started in the first week of January start to feel a bit tired right about now. The market is looking for an excuse to reverse, and the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs is a very convenient excuse.

When you combine that with a Japanese holiday, you get a recipe for exaggerated moves on low volume. It’s the kind of day where a single large order can move the market twenty pips because everyone else is still getting their second wind.

The Bottom Line

The Dollar is losing its grip and the central bankers are coming out to play. Don't get caught leaning too hard in one direction before Lagarde starts her presser. Now go make some pips. You're fed.