Pips for Breakfast: March 1, 2026

The US and Israel decided to renovate the Middle East leadership chart this weekend, and the Sunday open is going to be expensive.

On This Day

In 2018, President Trump announced steel and aluminum tariffs, proving that trade wars are easy to win until the Dow drops 400 points in an afternoon. Back in 2020, this was the date the market finally accepted that the pandemic was not just a news story about another continent.

The Play

Short AUD/JPY: This is the classic "the world is on fire" trade. The Australian Dollar is the market's favorite proxy for global growth and risk, while the Yen is where everyone hides when things go boom. Between the Iranian strikes and the start of Japan's fiscal year-end repatriation, the Yen is about to become the most popular currency on the planet. Look to sell any relief rallies when markets open this evening.

Long Gold (XAU/USD): If Trump is declaring foreign leaders dead on Twitter, or whatever the 2026 version of that is, you don't want to be holding paper. Gold has a historical habit of ignoring technical resistance when missiles are in the air. Watch for a massive gap up at the 5pm EST open.

What's on Deck

The Sunday Gap: At 5pm EST today, expect liquidity to be thinner than a central banker's excuses. USD/JPY and EUR/USD will likely gap significantly based on the weekend's war headlines.

Asian Session Tonight: Watch the Nikkei. If Japanese stocks tank on the war news, the Yen repatriation move will accelerate as investors pull cash back to the safety of home.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/CHF: The Swissie is the other "panic room" currency. If the Dollar gets too volatile due to the US involvement in Iran, the Franc will catch the overflow.

EUR/USD: Europe is stuck between a geopolitical rock and a hard place. The Euro usually gets sold in these scenarios as energy concerns resurface.

WTI Crude: This isn't a currency, but it's going to drive CAD and NOK today. If oil spikes on the Iran news, USD/CAD might actually drop despite the risk-off mood.

Why Your P&L Cares

March 1st is the official starting gun for Japanese repatriation. Every year, Japanese firms start bringing their overseas profits back home to clean up their balance sheets for the March 31 fiscal year-end. This involves selling foreign assets and buying Yen.

When you combine this seasonal JPY demand with a literal strike wave in the Middle East, the technical "oversold" levels on Yen pairs become irrelevant. Historically, these flows can move the market by hundreds of pips regardless of what the central banks are doing. Your Fibonacci retracements don't work during regime changes and corporate accounting cycles.

Last Friday's close saw the S&P and NASDAQ finish the month in the red. The market was already nervous about inflation and credit stress. Now, it has to price in the death of a supreme leader and a potential broad-scale war.

The Bottom Line

Sunday opens are usually for people who can't sleep. This one is for people who want to see history happen in real-time. Don't be the hero who tries to fade the first move. Let the gap settle before you put your capital at risk. Now go make some pips. You're fed.