Pips for Breakfast: February 27, 2026

China's Politburo says their latest development process is "extremely unusual," which is diplomatic speak for "we're winging it and hoping the charts don't notice."

On This Day

On this day in 2007, the Shanghai Composite took a 9% dive, its largest drop in a decade. It reminded global investors that when China sneezes, the rest of the world doesn't just get a cold, it gets a margin call.

The Play

The play today is centered on the USD/CAD cross. We have a data collision at 08:30 UTC with Canadian GDP and US PPI hitting the tape at the exact same time.

If Canadian growth continues its "barely breathing" trend of 0.1% while US PPI figures come in hot, expect the Loonie to fold. The US dollar has spent the week building a base, and a PPI beat would be the perfect excuse for a Friday afternoon rally. Keep your stops tight, because Friday afternoon liquidity has a habit of disappearing exactly when you need it most.

What's on Deck

EUR (02:29 UTC): German Prelim CPI. The forecast is 0.5%. If the states' readings earlier in the morning show heat, the Euro might catch a bid before the US session even starts.

CAD (08:30 UTC): GDP m/m. The market expects a return to growth at 0.1%. Anything flat or negative will likely see traders dumping CAD faster than a bad habit.

USD (08:30 UTC): Core PPI and PPI. This is the main event. Markets want 0.3%. If we get a repeat of last month's 0.7% surprise, the "inflation is over" crowd is going to have a very quiet weekend.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

GBP/USD: UK consumer confidence is at a three-month low and car production dropped 8%. The Pound is looking like a vintage Jaguar, gorgeous to look at but currently stuck on the side of the road.

USD/JPY: Japan gave us a mixed bag with retail sales beating and industrial production missing. The Yen remains a passenger to US Treasury yields. If PPI pops, USD/JPY probably tests the week's highs.

AUD/USD: The PBoC is busy cooling Yuan gains, which usually puts a ceiling on the Aussie. Watch the 0.6500 level closely as we head into the London close.

Why Your P&L Cares

This has been a week of "wait and see." We've watched the PBoC struggle with the Yuan and the UK grapple with darkening economic sentiment. Historically, the last trading day of February is when the "January trend" either solidifies or completely falls apart.

In 2020, this was the week the market finally realized the world was changing, leading to a Friday liquidation that moved the needle for months. While we aren't expecting a global shutdown today, the seasonal mid-month reversal pattern is still looming. Traders often use this final Friday to clean up their books, which means random, volatility-inducing flows are the norm, not the exception.

The Bottom Line

It's the end of the trading week. Markets close at 5pm EST (2pm PST), and the smart money usually heads for the exits well before that. If you've had a green week, don't let a late-day PPI revenge trade turn your weekend into a math session.

When markets reopen Sunday evening, we'll be looking at the RBA interest rate decision and a fresh batch of manufacturing data. For now, protect your capital.

Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.