Pips for Breakfast: March 10, 2026

Japan upgraded its growth figures just in time for everyone to start selling the Yen for tax reasons.

On This Day

In 2023, Silicon Valley Bank decided that holding long duration bonds was a great idea right until it became a terminal one. The resulting bank run turned a quiet Friday into a global panic that forced traders to learn what a regional bank balance sheet actually looks like.

The Play

USD/JPY short: We're entering the Japanese fiscal year end window. Japanese firms are notoriously efficient at bringing cash back home, and they don't care about your pivot points. Look for the pair to drift lower toward 142.50 as repatriation flows override the recent GDP upgrade.

AUD/USD long: China’s export surge of 21.8 percent is the real deal. Australia essentially functions as a giant warehouse for Chinese manufacturing. As long as China is shipping goods, the Aussie dollar has a reason to move higher. We're looking at a test of 0.6720 if the risk sentiment holds.

What's on Deck

The economic calendar is remarkably empty today. This is usually the part where a random headline about Iran or a stray tweet from the White House causes a 50 pip candle because everyone is bored. Monitor the headlines regarding shipping levies in the Gulf. If oil flows get interrupted, the Loonie and the Yen will be the only things moving.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: The pair is currently stuck in a range so tight it’s starting to feel claustrophobic. Don't expect a breakout without a catalyst that doesn't exist yet.

WTI Oil: Iran’s talk of shipping levies is adding a geopolitical premium to every barrel. It's hard to be short when someone is threatening to tax the world’s gas tank.

GBP/USD: Cable is drifting. Without UK data to chew on, it's just a proxy for dollar strength today. Support sits at 1.2680.

Why Your P&L Cares

March 10 is historically the day the "everything is fine" narrative starts to show some cracks. Beyond the SVB collapse of 2023, this week typically marks the start of quarter-end rebalancing. This is the time of year when large funds realize they're overweight on one currency and underweight on another.

The Japan factor is the main event here. The Q4 GDP upgrade to 1.3 percent provides a nice fundamental cushion, but the seasonal repatriation is the actual driver. When Japanese corporations move money home for the March 31 books, they don't do it subtly. Technical levels often get shredded by these flows. If you're trading purely on charts today, you're bringing a knife to a corporate accounting gunfight.

The Bottom Line

The data says growth is back, but the headlines say the Gulf is getting expensive. Manage your risk like someone is actually watching your screen. Now go make some pips. You're fed.