Pips for Breakfast: March 11, 2026

History suggests that March 11th is the day the universe reminds traders that their Fibonacci retracements are no match for acts of God or global contagion.

On This Day

In 2011, USD/JPY dropped 3% as Japan brought its money home after a massive earthquake and tsunami. In 2020, the WHO officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Markets reacted by selling everything that wasn't a bottle of hand sanitizer.

The Play

Today is all about the US CPI print at 08:30 UTC. The market expects a slight cooling in core inflation. If we get a beat on the 0.2% forecast, expect the US Dollar to flex. USD/JPY is the specific pair to watch. It's currently caught between soft Japanese PPI data and the ghost of seasonal repatriation flows. A hot US CPI number could send it through recent resistance, but if the safe haven trade kicks in because of North Korean missile antics, things will get messy. Short EUR/USD looks like a viable play if the 08:30 data confirms the US economy is still the cleanest shirt in the laundry basket.

What's on Deck

The main event is USD: Core CPI m/m at 08:30 UTC. The forecast is 0.2%. If it hits 0.3% or higher, the Fed narrative about a gradual slowdown gets a flat tire. We're also watching the IEA oil reserve release. If that hits the wires, oil prices could slide, taking the CAD down for the ride. North Korea is also testing cruise missiles designed for destroyers. It's their version of a Reply All email that nobody asked for, but everyone has to read.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

GBP/USD: Cable is drifting. It's waiting for the US data to decide if it wants to be a currency or a decorative asset today.
AUD/USD: The IEA news is weighing on commodity currencies. If oil drops, the Aussie might follow it down the drain.
USD/JPY: Japan's wholesale prices were lower than expected. This gives the BOJ another excuse to do nothing, which is a skill they've spent decades mastering.

Why Your P&L Cares

March is a historically weird month for the Yen. Japan's fiscal year ends March 31, so companies typically start bringing cash home around now. In 2011, this process was supercharged by tragedy. While we aren't expecting a disaster today, the seasonal gravity for USD/JPY is usually downward. However, the Goldman Sachs preview suggests inflation is cooling. If they're wrong, and the rest of the market is right, the US Dollar might ignore seasonal history and just keep climbing. In 2020, we learned that when the Risk Off button gets stuck, correlations break. Don't assume the Yen will be your friend if the North Korea situation escalates. Sometimes the Dollar is the only exit door people can find in a dark room.

The Bottom Line

Watch the clock at 08:30 UTC like your margin account depends on it. Because today, it actually might. History says today is for volatility, but the calendar says it's for math. Now go make some pips. You're fed.