Pips for Breakfast: March 16, 2026

China says its economy is off to a solid start, which is diplomatic speak for please stop looking at the property market.

On This Day

Six years ago today, the world decided it was done with risk. In 2020, the Fed cut rates to zero on a Sunday and by Monday morning the Dow was down 12.9%. It was the kind of day that makes you question why you didn't just go to dental school.

The Play

Keep a close eye on USD/CAD. Markets are pricing in a 0.7% jump in monthly CPI, which is a lot of pressure for a currency that usually moves with the speed of a cold glacier. If the numbers come in soft, the Loonie might find a new floor somewhere near the basement. Also watch AUD/USD. The RBA is expected to hike to 4.10% tonight. If they hold instead, expect the Aussie to drop like a heavy stone, especially with Chinese house prices currently doing their best impression of a submarine.

What's on Deck

CAD CPI (08:30 UTC): High impact. We have the m/m figure plus the Median and Trimmed y/y stats. If these don't show the expected heat, the Bank of Canada might start looking for the exit door on their hawkish stance.

USD Empire State Manufacturing Index (08:30 UTC): Medium impact. Forecast is 4.0. It's the first glimpse into how the US factory sector is feeling this month, assuming they've had enough coffee to fill out the survey.

AUD Cash Rate & RBA Statement (23:30 UTC): High impact. The RBA gets to decide if they want to be the hero or the villain. A hike is expected, but the statement will tell us if they're actually worried about the domestic slowdown.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Japan's fiscal year-end is approaching. This usually means yen repatriation, where Japanese firms bring their money home and the yen gets a little boost while everyone else is trying to balance their books.

EUR/USD: Quarter-end flows are starting to creep in. Expect random volatility that defies logic because large funds are just cleaning up their balance sheet messes before the deadline.

China News: House prices fell 3.2% in February. The slump is deepening despite the upbeat headlines from Beijing. This usually keeps a lid on the Aussie and Kiwi dollars regardless of what their own central banks do.

Why Your P&L Cares

Back in 2020, today was the day the markets realized that a global pandemic was actually a big deal. While 2026 feels much calmer, the seasonal patterns are still there. March is often the month where reality catches up to January optimism. Japan's fiscal year-end is the quiet monster in the room. When Japanese firms bring money home, it creates a vacuum in other pairs. If you're long USD/JPY today, you're fighting a decade of seasonal math that says the yen wants to go home for the holidays.

The Bottom Line

The RBA is holding the remote and Canada is bringing the data. Don't get caught staring at the chart when the volatility hits, because the market doesn't care about your feelings or your breakfast. Now go make some pips. You're fed.