Pips for Breakfast: March 17, 2026

The RBA just hiked rates, proving that "wait and see" is Australian for "we're doing it anyway."

On This Day

Six years ago, the world was realizing that two weeks to flatten the curve was a very optimistic estimate. Volatility in 2020 hit levels usually reserved for meme stocks and crypto rug pulls, leaving traders wondering if the charts had simply broken.

The Play

AUD/USD: The pair is the main character this morning. After the RBA raised the cash rate by 25bp, all eyes shift to the press conference at 00:30 UTC. If Governor Bullock doubles down on the "inflation is still too sticky" narrative, expect a push toward the 0.6750 level. If she sounds like she's apologizing for the hike, the move might fade faster than a New Year's resolution.

USD/JPY: It's that time of year when Japanese firms realize they need to balance their books for the fiscal year-end. This usually involves a lot of yen repatriation. We're looking for opportunities to sell the rallies in USD/JPY as the corporate "homecoming" of capital starts to weigh on the pair.

What's on Deck

AUD RBA Press Conference (00:30 UTC): This is high impact. The rate hike was the appetizer, but the commentary is the main course. Markets want to know if this is a "one and done" or the start of a fresh cycle.

USD Pending Home Sales (10:00 UTC): Forecast is at -0.6%. In a world of high rates, the housing market is essentially a game of musical chairs where nobody wants to stand up. A deeper miss than expected could give the USD bears another reason to stay active.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

NZD/USD: New Zealand food prices only ticked up 0.1%. It's a small win for consumers but a bit of a drag for the Kiwi. It's currently playing the role of the RBA hike's quieter, less interesting cousin.

USD/CNH: Trump has reportedly asked to delay a meeting with Xi. Markets hate delays and they especially hate uncertainty involving the two biggest economies. Watch for yuan weakness if the rhetoric gets sharper.

Singapore Exports: A miss is a miss. February exports rose 4.0% against a 5.5% forecast. It's a reminder that global trade isn't exactly firing on all cylinders yet.

Why Your P&L Cares

The market is currently entering the "quarter-end scramble" phase. This is the time when fund managers realize they've spent the last three months doing things they now have to explain to their clients. Consequently, we see flows that don't always align with the news of the day.

History shows us that the Japan fiscal year-end is a reliable, if annoying, source of volatility. When Japanese firms bring money home, they sell foreign assets. This means USD, EUR, and AUD are often sold for JPY regardless of what the charts say.

The USD is coming off a "Risk-On Monday" where stocks went up and the greenback took a seat. If the Pending Home Sales data today confirms that the US consumer is finally feeling the pinch, that "USD down" trend might have more legs than people think.

The Bottom Line

The RBA gave the market a jolt, and now the USD has to decide if it wants to fight back. Watch the repatriation flows and don't get married to a position if the quarter-end "weirdness" kicks in. Now go make some pips. You're fed.