Pips for Breakfast: April 9, 2026

Donald Trump is questioning the point of NATO again, which is a bit like questioning the point of an umbrella while it's pouring. It keeps things spicy for the Euro, but the Dollar doesn't seem to mind the drama.

On This Day

In 2021, US producer prices jumped twice as much as expected. The Fed told everyone not to worry because the inflation was just transitory. They were wrong, but at least they were confident about it.

The Play

The 08:30 UTC window is going to be a crowded trade. We have Core PCE, GDP, and Unemployment Claims all hitting the tape at the exact same time. It's the economic equivalent of a triple espresso.

The play here is USD/JPY. Japan is already on the back foot because their consumer sentiment is cratering and they're worried about oil supplies. If that Core PCE print holds steady at 0.4%, the Fed has no reason to cut rates anytime soon. Expect the Greenback to push higher as US corporations continue to bring cash home for tax season. Buy the dips on any initial knee-jerk volatility.

What's on Deck

USD Core PCE (08:30 UTC): This is the Fed's favorite child. If it comes in hot, the Dollar bulls will start their victory lap.

USD Final GDP (08:30 UTC): Usually a non-event if it matches the prelim, but watch for revisions. A surprise here adds fuel to the fire.

CNY CPI & PPI (21:30 UTC): This will matter for the Aussie and Kiwi. If China's factory prices stay in the basement, it's a sign the global recovery is still stuck in the mud.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: German industrial production was a disaster this morning. Between that and the NATO noise, the path of least resistance for the Euro is down.

USD/CAD: Oil reserve talk in Japan and US data will move this. If GDP is strong, expect the Loonie to struggle against the Greenback.

AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently a hostage to tonight's China data. If you're trading this, maybe keep the position size small until the PPI print is out.

Why Your P&L Cares

We are in the heart of the US tax season. Historically, this is when the Dollar gets a natural boost because foreign earnings are being repatriated to pay the IRS. It's one of the few times the taxman actually helps your long USD positions.

Combine this seasonal tailwind with today's data cluster and you have a recipe for a Dollar breakout. The market is looking for any reason to believe the US economy is outperforming Europe and Japan. Considering Germany's industrial sector is currently doing its best impression of a sinking ship, the narrative is writing itself.

The Bottom Line

The data is heavy, the politics are loud, and the Greenback has the home-court advantage. Don't fight the tax season trend unless the PCE print is a total miss. Now go make some pips. You're fed.