Pips for Breakfast: April 10, 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is about to drop a CPI number that will either justify your bias or force you to learn what rebalancing actually means.

On This Day

In 2013, USD/JPY finally clawed its way back to the 100.00 handle after four years of exile. It was a simpler time when triple digit exchange rates felt like a major life event instead of a Tuesday.

The Play

The trade of the day is a USD/CAD volatility sandwich: Both countries release high impact data at 08:30 UTC. The CAD employment change needs to recover from last month's brutal 83.9K loss just to stay relevant. If Canadian jobs miss while U.S. inflation runs hot, USD/CAD will likely head for the clouds. We're also in the heart of U.S. tax season: Traditionally, this is when the Dollar gets a boost from corporations repatriating foreign earnings to pay the taxman. Don't fight the structural flow.

What's on Deck

USD CPI (08:30 UTC): This is the big one. Markets expect a 3.4% annual print. Anything higher and the Fed's "higher for longer" mantra becomes a scream. CAD Employment (08:30 UTC): Canada needs a win here. The forecast is a modest 14.5K gain, but the margin for error is nonexistent. UoM Consumer Sentiment (10:00 UTC): We'll see if the American consumer is still feeling brave or if the reality of energy costs is finally sinking in.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: Watch the headlines out of Singapore regarding fuel security. If Hormuz disruptions get worse, the Aussie will feel the heat regardless of what the central bank says. EUR/USD: It's been a quiet week for the Euro, mostly because nobody is quite sure what to do with it. Watch for a break of the weekly low if U.S. inflation surprises to the upside. USD/JPY: Japan is flagging stagflation risks from the oil shock. If wholesale inflation keeps jumping, the BOJ might be forced to do something uncomfortable.

Why Your P&L Cares

This week has been dominated by energy jitters and the realization that China's "bad inflation" is a global problem. While PPI in China beat expectations, the fact that it's driven by energy costs rather than consumer demand is the kind of detail that makes macro analysts lose sleep. Historically, when we see this combination of rising energy costs and tax season USD demand, Fridays tend to be one-way streets.

The Bottom Line

It's Friday, April 10. The markets close at 5pm EST, and after a week of oil shocks and Pakistan negotiation rumors, nobody wants to be the hero holding a massive position over the weekend. Next week, the focus shifts to the retail sales data and the start of the spring earnings season, which will give us a better look at whether the economy is actually cooling or just taking a breath.

Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.