Pips for Breakfast: May 24, 2026

In 2010, the Euro plummeted to a four year low because the market decided the word contagion was the official color of spring.

On This Day

Sixteen years ago, the Eurozone debt crisis was in full swing, and traders were dumping the single currency like it was a cursed artifact. The ECB spent the afternoon wondering if a "Plan B" existed that didn't involve people in Athens throwing bricks. It didn't.

The Play

Short USD/CAD when markets open this evening. The reports out of Tehran suggesting a nuclear agreement have reached a "critical stage" should, in theory, be bearish for oil prices as Iranian supply prepares to flood the market. However, the "peace dividend" usually triggers a risk-on relief rally. If equities gap higher tonight, the Greenback will likely be the first thing sold.

Long JPY pairs if the "hope fades" headline from Friday carries over into the Asian session. We are deep in the "Sell in May" seasonal window. If the Tehran news turns out to be another case of "mediators being optimistic for the cameras," the flight to safety will be swift. Watch AUD/JPY specifically. It's the market's favorite barometer for "are we having fun yet?"

What's on Deck

Tehran Headlines: This is the only thing that matters until the London open. If Sky News Arabia is right about an agreement, expect a gap in USD/CAD and AUD/USD. If they're wrong, expect a very grumpy Sunday evening for anyone holding risk.

Fed Fatigue: Markets are still chewing on the Fed signals from late last week. With no major data on the calendar today, the narrative will be driven by technicals and the lingering fear that the "Sell in May" crowd is finally right.

Liquidity Gaps: Markets open at 5pm EST. Given the Iran news, the first ten minutes of trading will likely look like a heart monitor during a horror movie. Stay small or stay out until the spreads settle.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: It’s currently sitting in a range that can only be described as "aggressively boring." Watch the 1.0850 level for a breakout.
GBP/USD: Cable is struggling to find a reason to exist above 1.2700. If the Dollar catches a safe-haven bid, 1.2640 is the first stop.
Gold: If a nuclear deal is actually signed, the "geopolitical fear premium" might evaporate. That $2,400 handle looks a bit heavy right now.
Baker Hughes Data: The rig count is up by 5. It's a minor data point, but it reminds us that US production isn't slowing down just because we want it to.

Why Your P&L Cares

The "Sell in May and go away" adage is the kind of thing your uncle says to sound smart at parties, but the data actually supports the seasonal grumpiness. From May to October, global equities historically underperform. When stocks lose their luster, the FX market usually pivots toward the USD or JPY.

Back in 2010, the Euro lost 15% of its value in a single quarter because the market realized that "hope" isn't a viable fiscal policy. We're seeing similar vibes today. The Tehran negotiations are the "hope" factor. If they fail, the seasonal weakness in equities could accelerate, sending AUD/USD and NZD/USD into a tailspin as traders rush back to the safety of the Greenback.

The Bottom Line

The markets are currently resting, but the news cycle is working overtime. Expect a volatile open this evening as the "peace in our time" headlines clash with "Sell in May" reality. Now go enjoy the silence before the charts start screaming again. You're fed.