Pips for Breakfast: May 25, 2026

London and New York are closed today, which is the market's way of telling you that liquidity is currently a suggestion rather than a rule.

On This Day

In 2011, the US dollar hit a record low against the Swiss franc as investors decided that holding actual cash was safer than trusting a central bank. Traders who ignored the trend spent the rest of the year explaining to their spouses why the summer vacation was cancelled. Today, we're dealing with a different kind of silence, mostly because the major desks are empty.

The Play

Short Oil (WTI): The optics of a potential deal in the Strait of Hormuz are doing the heavy lifting right now. If the market continues to buy the "peace in our time" narrative from Iran, oil prices are going to find a new basement. Just remember that in a low-liquidity holiday market, a single tweet can move the needle five bucks.

Long EUR/USD: With the UK and US out of the office, the Euro has a habit of drifting upward into the vacuum. It's not based on fundamentals, it's based on the fact that the people who usually sell it are currently busy at a barbecue.

What's on Deck

It's a holiday in the UK, the US, and most of Europe, though the European exchanges are technically open for those who enjoy shouting into an empty room. The Hormuz Deal: Keep one eye on the wires for any confirmation that the oil supply won't be choked. Huawei: The company's 1.4nm chip ambitions for 2031 are a nice long-term story, but for today, it's just a reminder that the tech cold war is getting colder.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Flatlining. Without the New York session to provide direction, this pair is about as exciting as watching paint dry in a vacuum.
AUD/USD: Catching a slight bid. The "Sell in May" crowd is taking a breather, and the Aussie is taking advantage of the lack of dollar buyers.
Gold: Firming up. When the big banks close their doors for a day, retail traders often flock to the yellow metal for a sense of security that is probably illusory.

Why Your P&L Cares

Historical late-May data shows that the "Sell in May" phenomenon usually picks up steam right around now. When the big players come back from their long weekend, they often do so with a mandate to trim risk. In previous years, these quiet holiday sessions have been the calm before a very expensive storm.

The thin liquidity today means your stop-losses are more like polite requests than actual barriers. If a headline breaks regarding the Iran deal, the lack of depth in the order book could lead to some very creative price gaps. Historically, the most dangerous days aren't the ones with the most news, they're the ones where nobody is standing on the other side of your trade.

The Bottom Line

The desks are empty and the robots are in charge. If you must trade, keep your sizes small and your expectations lower. Otherwise, enjoy the silence. You're fed.