Pips for Breakfast: May 28, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz is currently hosting a defense operation that everyone is calling a ceasefire, which is the geopolitical equivalent of saying your account isn't blown, it's just in a deep drawdown.

On This Day

In 2015, the US Dollar hit a five-week high against the Yen on this very date. Investors realized the US economy wasn't actually collapsing, which usually comes as a surprise to people who spend too much time on financial social media.

The Play

USD/JPY: If Tokyo Core CPI tonight doesn't beat the 1.5% forecast, the Yen will continue its role as the market's favorite punching bag. Pair this with a hot US Core PCE at 08:30 UTC for a potential breakout toward new highs.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand budget deficit is narrowing, but the growth downgrade is a shadow over the Kiwi. Look for rallies to be sold if the US data dump at 08:30 UTC shows any signs of life. The "Sell in May" sentiment is hitting the commodity block particularly hard this morning.

What's on Deck

ECB President Lagarde (03:10 UTC): She's speaking early. Expect a lot of carefully curated words that ultimately mean the ECB is still waiting for more data. Markets will likely overreact anyway.

SNB Chairman Schlegel (07:00 UTC): The Swiss National Bank likes to keep traders guessing. Any commentary on the Franc's strength could spark immediate volatility in EUR/CHF.

US Core PCE and Prelim GDP (08:30 UTC): This is the main event. If Core PCE prints at or above the 0.3% forecast, the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative gets a fresh coat of paint. GDP is also on the menu, making this a high-protein morning for USD pairs.

BOC Press Conference (11:00 UTC): The Loonie has been steady, but a dovish tone from the Bank of Canada could send USD/CAD north, especially if US data was hot two hours prior.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: Capex is up thanks to data centers, but the Australian consumer is currently cutting back sharply. This divergence makes the Aussie vulnerable to any USD strength.

Gold: It got slammed during the Asia-Pacific session. Despite explosions in the Gulf, the yellow metal isn't finding the safe-haven bid many expected.

JPY: Tokyo CPI is the final hurdle today. If inflation remains stagnant at 1.5%, the Bank of Japan will have a hard time justifying a hawkish shift.

Why Your P&L Cares

The "Sell in May" trope is doing its yearly rounds. Historically, this is the time of year when equity weakness starts to bleed into forex, driving risk-off flows into the Dollar and out of everything else. We're seeing that cautious mood play out right now as markets wait for word on any US-Iran agreements.

Today's US data block is a rare double-header of PCE and GDP. In previous years, these data clusters have been known to wipe out a week's worth of "technical analysis" in approximately four seconds. If PCE stays sticky while growth holds at 2.0%, the "no landing" scenario becomes the only story in town.

The Bottom Line

Between explosions in the Gulf and the Fed's favorite inflation metric, today is not the day to trade without a stop loss. The market is looking for an excuse to buy Dollars, and the calendar is happy to provide one. Now go make some pips. You're fed.