Pips for Breakfast: May 29, 2026

Andrew Bailey is speaking today, which is usually the part of the week where the British Pound decides it's had enough of reality.

On This Day

In 2018, Italian politics decided to set the Euro on fire. Markets panicked about a "Quitaly" scenario that never happened, proving once again that traders are excellent at imagining apocalypses that don't arrive.

The Play

The CAD Fade: Canadian GDP is the last big hurdle of the week. The forecast is a measly 0.1%. If the Loonie misses this, expect CAD/JPY to slide, especially since Japan’s manufacturing data came in hotter than a summer in Osaka last night.

The Sterling Scalp: Bailey speaks early. If he sounds even remotely concerned about the "Middle East cost squeeze" mentioned in the NZ reports, GBP/USD will likely test its weekly lows. Watch the 1.2650 level. It's been acting as a magnet all week.

What's on Deck

German CPI (02:29 UTC): State-level data will leak out first. If the national number misses the 0.1% forecast, the EUR/USD will likely lose its appetite for the 1.0850 level.

Governor Bailey (04:20 UTC): The BOE Chief is talking. Usually, this involves a lot of words that mean "we are waiting for more data," but any hint of a rate cut timeline will send Cable into a tailspin.

Canada GDP (08:30 UTC): This is the main event for the New York session. A beat could save the Loonie’s week, but a miss confirms the "Sell in May" narrative is alive and well in the Great White North.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Retail sales in Japan rose faster than expected, but the Yen is still acting like it’s allergic to its own strength.
NZD/USD: Business confidence is up, but costs are rising. It's the "good news is bad news" paradox all over again.
US-Iran Headlines: These are the "wild cards" for the Friday afternoon lull. One headline about a ceasefire or a deal can gap the markets 50 pips while you're at lunch.

Why Your P&L Cares

The Week Recap: It’s been a week of "almosts." We almost got a definitive trend in the Dollar, we almost saw a breakout in gold, and we almost believed the "Sell in May" trope was a myth. Instead, we’ve mostly seen range-bound chopping that has shredded anyone using tight stops.

The Friday Drain: History shows that the last trading day of May is often a rebalancing act for big funds. In 2018, this was the day the Euro fell off a cliff because of Italian bond yields. While we don't have a Rome-sized fire today, the "Sell in May" sentiment usually leads to risk-off flows into the Friday close. Traders are closing their books, and they don't want to be holding bags over the weekend.

The Bottom Line

It’s Friday. Markets close at 5pm EST (2pm PST), and liquidity will vanish shortly after the London fix. If you've survived the week with your equity intact, don't throw it away on a low-liquidity gamble in the final hour of trading.

Next Week: When markets reopen Sunday evening, all eyes will be on the June opening prints and whether the US-Iran headlines matured into something real.

Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You’re fed.