Pips for Breakfast: June 23, 2026

Ten years ago today, the British public decided to rebrand the United Kingdom and GBP/USD decided to see how fast it could find the floor.

On This Day

In 2016, the Brexit referendum results started trickling in and Sterling went into a freefall. The GBP/USD pair moved nearly -8% in a single session, which is the FX equivalent of a heart attack. It remains the gold standard for why you should never leave a trade open during a once-in-a-generation geopolitical tantrum.

The Play

The GBP Anniversary Fade: It is the ten-year anniversary of the Brexit vote, and while we don't expect an 8% drop, the Flash PMIs hitting at 04:30 UTC are the real catalysts. The Services PMI is forecasted at 50.1. If that number slips into contraction territory, expect a "flashback" sell-off in Cable. Traders are still sensitive to UK stagnation, even a decade later.

The AUD Inflation Watch: Watch the AUD/USD ahead of the 21:30 UTC CPI print. The market is pricing in a -0.4% drop, but recent business activity shows new orders falling while costs stay high. If the CPI print refuses to cool down, the "higher for longer" narrative for the RBA gets a second wind. A surprise beat here could send the Aussie higher against a tired Greenback.

What's on Deck

03:15/03:30 UTC: French and German Flash PMIs. Europe is trying to prove it's still manufacturing things. The forecast for German Manufacturing is 50.3, which is the economic equivalent of a "C" grade. It's passing, but nobody's putting it on the fridge.

09:25 UTC: BOC Governor Macklem speaks. He'll likely try to be vague. He's very good at it. If he mentions the word "divergence" regarding the Fed, the Loonie might get some unwanted attention.

09:45 UTC: USD Flash PMIs. The manufacturing forecast is a healthy 54.6. If this beats, it gives the Fed more excuses to keep rates where they are, which usually makes the Dollar very happy and everyone else very annoyed.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Major-8 Kit →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Japan's core prices are still holding above 2% and the BOJ is currently doing that thing where they talk a lot about the Yen but don't actually do anything. It's like a parent counting to three and then starting over at one.

EUR/USD: If the French Services PMI misses its 45.9 target, the Euro will likely test the lower end of its weekly range. France is still the drama student of the Eurozone economy.

USD/CAD: Macklem's speech is the main event. If he sounds even slightly worried about the Canadian consumer, the CAD will probably lose its footing against the USD.

Why Your P&L Cares

History doesn't always repeat, but it does like to remind you when you're being too comfortable. June 23rd is a permanent scar on the charts for anyone trading in 2016. While today's PMI data won't move the Pound 1,300 pips, we are in the mid-year review window.

Central banks are currently looking at their H1 performance and deciding if they need to change their tone for the rest of the year. The BOJ is stuck between a rock and a weak currency, and the RBA is dealing with "sticky" inflation that won't go away. When the calendar is this busy, the "summer doldrums" don't exist. Your stops should be firm because the market doesn't care about your feelings or your 10th-anniversary nostalgia.

The Bottom Line

It's the ten-year anniversary of the day the Pound learned to skydive without a parachute. Try not to let your account balance follow that example during the PMI prints. Now go make some pips. You're fed.