Pips for Breakfast: June 24, 2026

Ten years ago today, the UK decided to break up with Europe via a text message sent at 4 AM, and the Pound still hasn't quite recovered from the ghosting.

On This Day

In 2016, GBP/USD pulled a disappearing act, dropping 12% in a single session after the Brexit vote. Cable hit a 31-year low of 1.3229 while traders across London discovered that "liquidity" is a relative term.

The Play

AUD/USD: Australian CPI just printed at 4% y/y, which is cooler than the 4.3% the market expected. This gives the RBA an excuse to stay on the sidelines. If tonight's employment data misses the 31.2K forecast, the Aussie is going to have a very bad day. Look for a break below 0.6640 to target 0.6600.

GBP/USD: It's the ten-year anniversary of the Brexit carnage. While we aren't expecting a 1,700 pip drop today, the "Leave" anniversary often brings out the ghosts in the machine. The pair is currently hugging the 1.2700 level. If the US dollar catches a bid on the back of the Trump oil headlines, Cable could easily slide toward 1.2620.

What's on Deck

AUD Employment Change (21:30 UTC): The market is looking for 31.2K new jobs. After the CPI miss, a weak jobs number is the perfect recipe for a "dovish RBA" narrative.

BoJ Summary of Opinions: The Bank of Japan is flagging hikes toward 1.75%. This is the BoJ version of "aggressive," which usually means they might actually do something before the heat death of the universe. Watch JPY crosses for volatility if the 1.75% target gets more traction in the London session.

Strait of Hormuz: Qatar says LNG production is resuming and the Strait might reopen. This is a "sell the news" event for energy prices, which could put some weight on the Loonie (CAD).

The Data Behind the Patterns View Major-8 Kit →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Stuck between BoJ hawkishness and Treasury yields. It's a great place to lose money if you're feeling adventurous.

EUR/GBP: This cross surged 8% on this day in 2016. Today, it's about as exciting as watching paint dry, but watch 0.8450 for a technical rejection.

Crude Oil: Trump is asking the DOJ to look into oil companies for high pump prices. This usually has the same market impact as a sternly worded letter to a HOA, but it might trigger some algorithmic selling in the short term.

Why Your P&L Cares

June 24 is a day that lives in FX infamy. On this date in 2016, the Pound didn't just fall, it entered a different dimension. EUR/GBP moved 8% in a single session. In the world of currency trading, that's a "career-defining" move, which is usually code for "half the floor got fired."

Today, the market is grappling with a different kind of regime shift. The BoJ is finally trying to act like a normal central bank by targeting 1.75%, while the RBA is watching inflation cool faster than anticipated. We use these historical anniversaries to remind ourselves that "unlikely" is not the same as "impossible." When the data misses and the political headlines get weird, the exits get very small, very fast.

The Bottom Line

Today is about checking your stops and remembering that the market can, and will, do the unthinkable if the liquidity vanishes. Don't be the person who thinks a 12% move is a myth from the olden days. Now go make some pips. You're fed.