Pips for Breakfast: January 25, 2026

Silver is trading like a meme stock and the railroad guys think the economy is stuck in a ditch.

On This Day

In 2018, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Davos a weak dollar was good for trade. President Trump then clarified he actually wanted a strong dollar. The Greenback spent the day doing a very expensive impression of a yo-yo.

The Play

The USD is currently battered, but the "January Effect" suggests we should prepare for a messy reversal when markets open this evening at 5pm EST. While the S&P Global PMI missed expectations, the sell-off in the dollar feels overextended, especially with silver hitting a surreal $102.

The Setup: Watch EUR/USD during the Asian session tonight. It historically sees high volatility during the final week of January as funds rebalance their books. If the pair tests 1.1000 and fails, look for a short position targeting 1.0850. The railroad macro view from CSX suggests the "no improvement" theme might eventually weigh on risk-on currencies like the Euro.

The Hedge: If you're feeling adventurous, USD/JPY is the pair to watch for safety. If the "Cuba blockade" headlines transition from rumors to actual policy, the Yen will likely be the only place people feel safe hiding.

What's on Deck

Forex markets open later today, but the real fireworks start tonight. We have a light calendar for the next 24 hours, which means the market will be hyper-focused on two things: the absurd price of silver and those railroad earnings.

The week ahead features a massive earnings dump that will dictate general market sentiment. Keep an eye on any "flash" headlines regarding trade or blockades. In a light-liquidity Sunday open, a single tweet can move GBP/USD fifty pips before the London desks even have their lights on.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

Silver: At $102, it’s basically the new Bitcoin. Expect margin calls to keep the precious metals desks awake and crying all night.
AUD/USD: Highly sensitive to the "railroad macro" outlook. If the "no improvement" sentiment spreads, the Aussie is the first to fall.
USD/CAD: Oil prices are fluctuating on the Cuba news, making the Loonie a volatile passenger for the trip.

Why Your P&L Cares

History likes to repeat itself, or at least rhyme poorly. On this day in 2015, the Greek election results sent the Euro into a tailspin as traders panicked about the Eurozone falling apart. It didn't, but the volatility made a lot of people very rich or very unemployed.

We’re seeing a similar "headline risk" environment today. When the US administration starts talking about total blockades, the market doesn't wait for the facts. It sells first and asks questions during the Tuesday session. The January Effect is also in full swing, where institutional managers move billions of dollars around just to justify their fees. This creates price action that often defies logic, meaning your technical indicators might lie to you for the next few days.

The Bottom Line

It's Sunday. The markets are quiet for another few hours. Use the time to check your stops and wonder how we reached a world where silver costs more than a decent steak dinner. The week ahead is messy, loud, and probably full of headlines that don't make sense. Now go get ready for the open. You’re fed.