Pips for Breakfast: January 26, 2026

Gold just crossed $5000, which means your wedding ring is now worth more than your car, and USD/JPY is currently sliding down a very steep hill without a helmet.

On This Day

In previous years, late January has been the time when the "January Effect" moves from a fun theory to a portfolio-destroying reality. Historically, this week is when fund managers realize their New Year resolutions were too ambitious and start rebalancing with all the grace of a startled elephant.

The Play

The Trade: Keep a very close eye on USD/JPY. After falling through 154, the pair is looking for a reason to exist. If the US Durable Goods data at 08:30 UTC comes in soft, the slide could accelerate toward 152. On the flip side, EUR/USD is testing the patience of bears. If the German Ifo data beats the 88.3 forecast, the Euro might actually remember it's supposed to be a major currency and push toward 1.10.

What's on Deck

04:00 UTC EUR: German Ifo Business Climate. The forecast is 88.3. This is essentially a survey asking German CEOs how much they’re worrying. If they're less worried than usual, the Euro gets a boost. If they're more worried, we all get to read more articles about the death of German industry.

08:30 UTC USD: Core Durable Goods Orders. This measures how many big-ticket items Americans are buying. It's a medium impact event that often feels high impact when the market is already looking for a reason to sell the dollar.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: The Japanese bond market finally stopped screaming after last week's blowout, but the Yen is still acting like it has something to prove. 154 is now the ceiling.

Gold: At $5000, gold has entered the "absurdity" phase of the bull market. Watch for profit-taking by people who want to buy islands.

Silver: Silver hitting $102 is the kind of thing that makes people start checking their attics for old coins. It's volatile, it's loud, and it's currently mocking the US Dollar.

AUD/USD: Chinese President Xi Jinping's military purge is the kind of geopolitical spice that usually makes the Aussie Dollar nervous. Watch for a "risk-off" mood if the headlines get more descriptive.

Why Your P&L Cares

The market is currently in a state of "dollar-battering" that feels less like a correction and more like a lifestyle choice. Historically, when we see silver and gold hit these kinds of psychological levels, it means the big institutions are hedging against something they aren't telling us yet.

The January Effect usually brings volatility, but 2026 is turning it into a spectator sport. In previous cycles, this was the week where retail traders got caught leaning the wrong way because they assumed the "big round numbers" like 150 on USD/JPY or $5000 on Gold would act as permanent walls. They aren't walls. They're suggestions.

The Bottom Line

The dollar is unloved, gold is a king, and German business sentiment is about to tell us if Europe is ready to wake up. It’s a great day to have tight stops and a very skeptical mind. Now go make some pips. You're fed.