Pips for Breakfast: January 27, 2026

China’s industrial profits just climbed back from the dead, and the Aussie dollar is currently vibrating with pre-CPI anxiety.

On This Day

Historically, the last week of January is where the "January Effect" either secures its gains or gets a reality check. In 2015, markets spent this week still picking up the pieces from the Swiss National Bank floor removal, proving that "stability" is just a word central bankers use before they change their minds.

The Play

Keep an eye on AUD/USD. If the Aussie CPI prints higher than the 3.5% forecast tonight, the RBA might have to stop pretending they’ve tamed the inflation beast. A beat here could send the pair toward recent highs as traders price in "higher for longer" all over again.

Also, watch USD/CNH after China’s industrial profits posted a surprise 5.3% gain. The yuan has a history of enjoying good news, even if that news comes from a balance sheet that was previously screaming. If the dollar softens during Trump’s 08:30 UTC speech, a short USD/CNH play might be the move of the morning.

What's on Deck

USD takes the stage early. President Trump speaks at 08:30 UTC. These speeches are usually a coin flip between specific policy shifts and general vibes, both of which move markets. Later at 10:00 UTC, we get CB Consumer Confidence. The forecast is 90.1, up from 89.1. If consumers are feeling as brave as the forecast suggests, the dollar might find some local support.

The real fireworks happen at 19:30 UTC with the Australian CPI data. It's high impact, high drama, and usually involves a lot of people yelling on Twitter about the price of avocados in Sydney. Monitor AUD/JPY for the most aggressive reaction to these numbers.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

Gold and Silver: Asian markets saw "wild swings" last night. If you’re trading metals today, bring a helmet and tighten your stops.

EUR/USD: The Financial Times is teasing the "mother of all" trade deals between the EU and India. The euro hasn't moved much on the rumor yet, but the "buy the rumor" crowd is likely finishing their first cup of tea right about now.

USD/JPY: Richmond Manufacturing Index at 10:00 UTC is a medium impact event, but it's the kind of data that can tip a nervous Yen market if it misses the -5 forecast.

Why Your P&L Cares

The late January rebalancing isn't just a myth told to junior analysts to keep them busy. It's the window where institutional funds realize their portfolios are lopsided and start moving blocks of liquidity that would make a retail trader weep.

Historically, EUR/USD sees increased volatility during this stretch as funds recalibrate for the year. Combine that with the "January Effect" volatility and a sudden rebound in Chinese industrial profits, and you have a market that's looking for an excuse to move. The Aussie CPI tonight is the perfect catalyst for a broader shift in sentiment.

The Bottom Line

China is bouncing back, the Aussie is on the clock, and the dollar is waiting for a microphone. It's a busy day for people who enjoy watching candles move. Now go make some pips. You're fed.