Pips for Breakfast: January 28, 2026

The Bank of Canada and the Fed are both speaking today, which is the central banking equivalent of a double feature where both movies are three hours long.

On This Day

Five years ago today, the financial world discovered that a group of people on a message board could make billion dollar hedge funds cry over a video game retailer. Volatility became a personality trait for the entire market, and the "January Effect" took on a whole new, chaotic meaning.

The Play

The AUD/USD Long: Australian CPI just clocked in at 3.8% against a 3.6% forecast. While the rest of the world is dreaming of rate cuts, the RBA is looking for its hiking boots. If US Consumer Confidence continues its slide to 11-year lows, the Aussie could easily dance past 0.6700.

The USD/CAD Squeeze: We have a double-header today with the BOC and the Fed. The forecast is a hold at 2.25% for Canada, but any hint that they're worried about the US economic slowdown will send this pair into a tailspin. Watch the 1.3450 level, it's either a trampoline or a trapdoor.

What's on Deck

09:45 UTC CAD: BOC Monetary Policy Report and Rate Statement. They're expected to hold steady at 2.25%. Tiff Macklem will likely try to sound as boring as possible, but the market rarely lets him get away with it.

14:00 UTC USD: FOMC Statement and Rate Decision. The consensus is a hold at 3.75%. The real fireworks happen in the phrasing. If they mention "downside risks" to employment, the dollar might lose its footing.

14:30 UTC USD: FOMC Press Conference. Jerome Powell will spend an hour saying "data dependent" in twenty different ways while traders try to read his tie for secret signals.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: Stuck in the January rebalancing mud. It's waiting for the Fed to decide if the dollar is still the prom king.
GBP/USD: Cable is drifting. Without UK data today, it's just a passenger on the USD volatility train.
UNH Stock: Healthcare spending is a mess and UnitedHealth got hammered yesterday. If healthcare stays in the gutter, expect broader risk-off sentiment to creep into the FX space.

Why Your P&L Cares

The January Effect isn't just a myth told to new interns. Historically, this final week of the month is where the real trends for the first quarter get their legs. In previous years, fund rebalancing during this window has triggered massive shifts in EUR/USD without any clear fundamental catalyst.

Today, we have the added spice of a rare double-header. When two major central banks speak on the same day, the cross-border flows in USD/CAD become a game of high-stakes musical chairs. If the Fed remains hawkish while US consumer confidence hits decade lows, the market's cognitive dissonance might just break a few charts. You don't want to be the one holding the bag when the music stops.

The Bottom Line

Central bankers are about to tell us how they feel about the future. Most of them are just guessing, but they're guessing with trillions of dollars. Keep your stops wide and your expectations low. Now go make some pips. You're fed.